19 August , we all thought yesterday was horrid .
Today was worse.
NSW had another surge of local Delta cases in Syndey , 681 new cases , 546 cases which is > 80% NOT isolating
, brings the total local cases of Delta in this 3rd wave tp 10,063 in about 7 weeks.
HNE had 5 new cases all in Newcastle LGA.
WNSW had a shocker overnight with 25 new cases =
20 cases in Dubbo LGA
4 cases in Mudgee LGA
1 case in Bathurst LGA.
NSW remains in the current Lite Lockdown , no changes it restrictions , no hardening of the health orders , this is equivalent to a STAGE 3 Lockdown, despite experts and even the NSW CHO calling for the lockdown to be hardened in Greater Sydney to Stage 4 , and to a Stage 5 SUPERHARD lockdown in the hotspot LGA to stop people leaving and mixing.
Victoria has had a surge of 57 new delta case overnight , 3 are mystery cases , brings their total for this outbreak to 311 ,their Stage 4 HARD LOCKDOWN has been extended for 2 weeks.
ACT has had a surge of 16 new Delta cases overnight , 5 are mystery cases , this brings their total for this outbreak to 83.
QLD has recorded another OO day. Restrictions in QLD have been relaxed BUT the restrictions along the NSW - QLD border have been hardened.
ADF will deploy 100 personnel to assist QLD & NSW police in controlling / curtailing "travellers" sneaking into QLD from Delta ravaged Greater Sydney , NHE and WNSW and to manage the QLD-NSW border bubble for NWNSW , NCentralNSW and NRivers regions w/ QLD.
NT - OO day in Top End , the CCT BREAKER HD LKDN has ended in Darwin and is likely to lift in Katherine tomorrow.
Royal Flying Doctor Service is delivering COVID vaccines to remote NT cattle stations.
Compare with previous waves.
Regional NSW
HNE outbreaks
WNSW outbreaks
Modelling
If nothing changes in NSW , and the case numbers continue in the way they are going ATM.
I am usually very conservative in the use of BLACKBOX least squares regression models to extrapolate more than a few point forward , but PROJECTION 3 is seems an excellent fit to the real data and I observed an error of + 0.16% ( + 16 ) so I have a degree of confidence in it now.
Projections for NSW DELTA WAVE.
My model Projection 3 indicates the peak may occur in mid September (project ~ 800 cases per day ?) , will likely be seeing ~ 25,000 cases in NSW by then.
The models slope will be level when dy/dt = 0 @ t = 119 ==> the curve will be flat by mid October , will likely climax at ~ 42,000 cases and means there will be > 400 deaths in NSW.
These are TERRIFYING NUMBERS.
I HOPE my predictions are wrong and NSW Health takes expert advise by moving to at least a Stage 4 HARD LOCKDOWN in NSW and a Stage 5 SUPERHARD LOCKDOWN in the HOTSPOTS as a matter of extreme urgency.
NSW will not be able to vax it's way out this Delta Wave using predominantly AZ , will be a very tall order even with Pfizer or Moderna , because the Ro for Delta is so high , and will require > 90% the adult population of NSW to achieve anything near Ho , we will need to push for >> 90% of everyone in NSW to get close to Ho … a bridge too far I fear .
I think PM ScoMo, Fed Health Min Hunt, Berejiklian (NSW PM) , and Hazzard (NSW Health Min) ARE ALL DELUSIONAL WRT VAXING OUR WAY OUT THIS.
And "living with Delta" percolating in the community even with 100% AZ vaxed IS NOT AN OPTION , the ONLY MORAL OPTION is to drive for Delta ELINIMATION IN THE COMMUNITY ( so maybe 1 case / million ), else we risk more outbreaks forever.
VERY HARD SHARP CCT breakers lockdowns have been analysed by AU's Treasury Dept and expert virologists and epidemiologists and economists who are telling the state govts and federal govt these are cheaper economically than "living with Delta".
Doing what NSW has done in this Delta Wave is a recipe for an social , health and economic desaster as well as being morally bankrupt.
NZ has confirmed the seed case for their new outbreak is Delta originated in Sydney. Recorded 11 local Delta cases in Auckland to day. Total is now 21.
New Zealand says it has solved Covid outbreak 'puzzle'
https://www.msn.com/en-au/health/medical/new-zealand-says-it-has-solved-covid-outbreak-puzzle/ar-AANuU5o?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531
Yet another quarantine escape because 14days quarantine is NOT long enough with Delta strain, all too common here in AU for people to undergo mandatory quarantine on returning from o/seas or on travelling interstate or intrastate from a hotspot LGA where there were infected with Delta , or serving 14 days in mandated home iso , testing negative multiple times up til release , only to become symptomatic a week or more after release. I have been suggesting that the quarantine period needs to be extended to 28 days to be sure no one is released harbouring the virus , this was needed for Wild strain, Alpha and even more so for Delta.
How is the Vax Rollout going in Delta beleaguered NSW ?
New South Wales recorded more than 110,000 COVID-19 vaccinations yesterday, bringing the state to 5.5 million jabs overall ( most of these are AZ and first jabs in arms in last few weeks ).
16 - 30 yo Gps will be eligible for Pfizer at end of month, so those who live in Greater Sydney are playing the odds and getting AZ now ( if they can get near their GP to be assessed first) , or risking it and fronting up at chemists in the rollout system or mass vax hubs where they queue for hours for their jab.
30 - 40 yr olds are currently eligible for Pfizer , but good luck getting a booking as supply is constrained so many are also playing the odds and risking AZ instead as these are being PUSHED by ScoMo, Gladys, and Hazzard as some kind of golden bullet and a way out.
This is a near future desaster in the making like what's unfolding in Israel (who abandoned AZ in favor of Pfizer to fight their Delta Wave No1 and are now in the grips of new Delta Wave).