Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".

[kingofnobbys]

What the hell was he doing going to work while symptomatic ? …. A VERY BIG NO-NO.

That's the thing, he wasn't. So it's possible we both got it from someone else at work who was asymptomatic if we did get it from work. Otherwise, maybe just a coincidence that we both ended up getting sick, possibly from different places. His isn't confirmed covid, mine is gonna be tested today.

About 2-3 weeks ago, my 3 year old daughter had a slight cough, but got over it with no other symptoms within 2 or 3 days. Then a few days after that, my wife got sick with a really bad cough and body aches. I avoided her like the plague. She was "sick" only for a few days, but had a cough for about a week. We basically didn't interact until she had stopped coughing. A week or two went by and I hadn't caught it so I figured I was ok.

However, the symptoms I have don't really match what my wife and daughter had, and match my co worker to the T. So it either had to have been from someone at work, or someone we both interact with in the public (our work has us interacting with the pubic constantly).

That's why when I got slight symptoms, I called in. Admin at our work is making me get tested. Not a bad idea, I wasn't planning on coming back anyways until I am over the symptoms. But, if it is Covid, well I guess I'll see what the health department says.

-Brandon

Missus vaxed ? HCWorkers vaxx mandated there (CA) yet ? Read a story where some big US HC and Hospital Cos are making all HCworkers get vaxed , no jab = no job .

This is starting to be mandated here for all frontline HC workers & HCPros , and for disability workers and aged care workers.
Big push to get all frontline educators ,all supermarket , public transport workers , building workers , and food processing workers vaxed too , will become mandatory here I think.
, ScoMo and co have shirked this responsibility leaving it to individual companies & states.

Will become made part of the awards / contracts & OH&S provisions and enforced by the States.

 

[kingofnobbys]

I feel for younger folk who have jobs they can't do remotely at home and have no choice about mixing with other people in their daily jobs.

Yup, wife works in a health care setting and I work around the public all day long. No avoiding it for us unfortunately. Been lucky IMO to have staved it off this long. We've been very careful for the most part.

-Brandon

Prob too late : if there's a spare bedroom and second toilet / bathroom , that will be just for you now .

Here in AU if one member of family can't iso from rest, they end up in hospital in an iso covid ward if symptomatic or a mediquarantine hotel if asymptomatic til they get a series of neg tests and have served 14 days in ISO.

Delta has been going though households like napalm here. Been entire household infected while waiting for their household case zero's covid test results and under health orders to iso @ home for 14 days , this means only places anyone in the household can go are
1) to be tested ( by appointment )
2) to seek urgent medical help
3) or if they need to leave the home in a life threatening natural desaster ( flood, bushfire or housefire ).
Means they are restricted to their properties = house + front & back yards on pain of $5000 on the spot fines and prison if they breach.

 

[Claudiusx]

Yes she has been vaxed. Me and the 3 year old haven't though. Her job "encouraged" her to get it about a year or so ago. She was one of the first to get it because of her work.

They are trying to mandate the vax for health care workers here in CA. However, how it's written now if it passes, HC must be vaxed, or get tested every week. So there is still a way out of it if someone doesn't want to be vaxed who works in that line of work.

I have been getting worse each day it seems. Not sleeping well and my nose is producing snot at astronomical rates lol. Pair that with a very massive headache (I never get headaches) and that's really all I have right now. A slight little cough and a feeling of maybe "something" going on in lungs, but it's really the lack of sleep and the headache that are doing me in right now. Still no results back from my test.

-Brandon

 

[kingofnobbys]

Sounds much like what my one house down neighbours have described wrt symptoms, got your test results back yet ?
If not might worth getting hold of a pack of QuikCovidTests ( the ones that look like a pregnancy test and give a result in 15min ) from the local chemist ( do the chemists deliver there ? ) .


In Israel , they are discovering that the efficacy of Pfizer wains with time , she maybe needs to ask the GP for a booster vax shot .
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210728/pfizer-vaccine-protection-wanes-after-6-months-study-finds
Not sure about how Moderna vax efficacy changes with time ,similar class of vax as Pfizer , very likely wains with time too.

Plus , being vaxxed does not = being immune , even fully vaxxed people can catch Delta and transmit it, though they are a lot less likely to end up in hospital , on a ventilator , or in their grave, but some break through cases do still die despite being perfectly fit & health & young despite being fully vaxxed.

One week testing interval is not good enough, here the expert virologists and epidemiologists are recommending every other day AT LEAST for unvaxxed HCWs if the state govts don't mandated fully vaxxed status for all HCWs, all front line teachers, all front line essential workers and all process workers ( who cant work from home ).
Can be highly infectious ( asymptomatically then symptomatically ) for the entire week and be a superspreader the entire week infecting dozens of people if not masking up the entire week.

Mask mandates for all the above are here to stay for foreseeable future and for everyone else too, only visible guarantee you have , because people can and do lie about their vaxx status.



My neighbours one house down have been given the all clear , so are now back at ( both essential workers = she's in HC , he's a postal worker ).

BUT unfortunately the young lady across the street has taken a turn for the worse & was just taken away in an ambulance ( ambos in full hazmat and PPE gear ), sirens and cop excort, so I think she's going straight to the nearest ICU and she's in a bad way. She was discovered very sick by a mandatory home iso check team ( a cop & soldier ) who called the ambulance for her .
She's only in her mid 40s !! ( works at local Coles supermarket at Charlestown Square as a checkout chick & fitness fanatic ( gogs , and goes to gym several times a week ) .
Coles Charlestown Square is one of the local exposure sites from those 2 stupid girls from Sydney Uni who snuck to Newcastle by XPT to party and club and shop = the 2 who brought Delta to Newcastle ( we were Delta free til then ). So her entire shift from Coles were ordered into home iso last week (secondary contacts to these "young ladies") , tested positive for Delta yesterday & I spotted her gardening in her front yard yesterday so she was feeling OK then when we spoke ( with the street width between us ).

We just had visit from a cop and soldier in PPE to ask if we'd had any contact with her. Fortunately no.

Very nice cop and soldier offered us the hamper they were going to supply to her, when we told them we've been in voluntary home iso . We declined the hamper as our weekly shop will be here from Woolworths tomorrow , told them there are needier people who WILL BE DOING IT TOUGH who need the free hamper of essential more than we do.

 

[kingofnobbys]

16 AUGUST UPDATE.

Been a shocker , memories of the worst days in the 2nd Wave in Victoria .
NSW recorded 8 Delta deaths overnight (including a 15 yo boy).
478 local Delta transmissions , of which 390 were in the community while infectious for at least part of the time, 290 cases have joined the contact tracing backlog.

Brings the total of local cases of Delta in NSW in the 7 weeks to 8297 ( this was started by just one stupid man who was employed to transport intl aircrew to quarantine who failed to follow covid protocols and wasn't vaxed ).
ALL of NSW is NOW IN A HARD LOCKDOWN , same restrictions as imposed in HNE , Northern Rivers and Armidale and areas of Greater Sydney considered to be Delta Hotspots. This includes ALL of Greater Sydney as well and there is a huge police health orders crackdown / blitz under way to enforce the Health Orders to the letter of the law with zero exceptions , this will run for at least 3 weeks.
Fines start at $1000 and are up to $5000 on the spot for individuals.

In my local region of NSW , 16 local Delta cases over night , brings the total for HNE region to 120.

HNE outbreak is slowing , slope was 1.56 in W1 , is 1.16 now, but still doubling every 5.2 days which represents a 3 fold slowing in spread in HNE region since HNE CCTBR LKDN.

In the western (outback) region of NSW , the outbreak is cataclysmic and hitting aboriginal communities very hard ( is mostly young children being infected ) , 35 local Delta cases overnight , brings the total for the WNSW region to 90 .

WNSW outbreak slope is an frightening 1.93, doubling every day !!.
With a near vertical slope in the WNSW epidemiological curve .

Victoria recorded 22 local Delta transmissions overnight ,lots of the cases are school children and their parents , with 5 cases of unknown source , brings their current Delta outbreak to 206 case.
Victoria has hardened their lockdown , nightly curfews are now in effect in Victoria in an attempt to stop the further spread of Delta in Greater Melbourne.
They are trying a vax blitz to get lots more people in Greater Melbourne AZ vaxed . Pfizer is in short supply in AU, though 1 million more cases of Pfizer have arrived, most of these are going to Greater Sydney where Delta is spreading the city like napalm .
No one is allowed to buy and drink on the premises ( taking masks off to drink or eat while seated ), can only buy as pick&collect and take-away , been too many people creating outdoor pubs and having pubcrawls in Melbourne which are feared to be seeding superspreader events.

ACT has had a very bad day , huge jump in local Delta cases . Up by 19 Delta cases overnight , bringing their total to 28.

Delta has snuck into NT again with an interstate traveller , and now ( as off this afternoon ) in a circuitbreaker hard lockdown .

Qld has had their 2nd consequetive OO day , and locked everyone from NSW out unless they are essential workers who can prove they have had AT LEAST one vax jab , and have a permit to cross the QLD-NSW border FOR ESSENTIAL REASONS ONLY.'

No further cases of Delta have snuck into Tasmania.

WA & SA have no more cases of Delta recently.

Data

y
This chart for ALL NSW . Note the spread peak is no longer in grps over 60 yo. Most people I know are all telling me the same story by emails, SMS, phone, we're staying home and avoiding EVERYONE ,even those who have been lucky enough to get fully Pfizer vaxed, and nearly everyone who has had at least one AZ jab are being told by their GPs to iso at home for their own protection if they can , and if they can't because they aren't retired yet, are masking up when ever away from home and shunning meetings and socialisation .
In NSW , Victoria and ACT all the nursing homes are locked down , ZERO visits , want to see and have a chat with a resident , it's only allowed by ZOOM or through a closed window .
No hospital visits are permitted and all elective procedures are on hold.


Compare Wild Covid19 Waves 1 & 2 and current Delta Wave

Sources

Aged care & Disabled Snapshots

Hospitalisation

Deaths

Modelling 2nd Wave Victoria cf 3rd (Delta) Wave GSyd

 

[kingofnobbys]

Yes she has been vaxed. Me and the 3 year old haven't though. Her job "encouraged" her to get it about a year or so ago. She was one of the first to get it because of her work.

-Brandon

Might be helpful for you …. https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/children-are-contracting-covid-19-but-what-are-the-risks-we-answer-your-questions/ar-AANlISY?ocid=msedgntp

ABC has science trained reported so you can trust what they report & advise.

 

[kingofnobbys]

What's inside my 5km Delta Bubble :

Numerous sports parks , Kahibah Grave Yard ( a fav haunt of mine for star gazing ), Charlestown Sq, Mt Hutton Sq, Warners Bay Shopping Precinct , Kotara Sq.
Fishing :
Redhead Beach & Ocean platform under Redhead Bluff ( treacherous climb down to rock though )
Awabakal NP (access to Nth end of rocks at RedHead) .
Dudley Beach & rock platforms under Kahibah Head & Sthern area of Glenrock NP , south of the Glenrock Lagoon and Glenrock Creek and the Scout Camp.
Warners Bay and Croudace Bay THHalton Dark Site Pk ( Nth shores of Lake Macquarie ).

Family inside our 5km bubble:
My brother lives inside the bubble , as does one of my nephews.
Have a couple of nieces and a nephew of my wife in the bubble and one of her aunties too.

Outside of my bubble are
Kooragang Is, Stockton Bridge , Hexham , Carrington Basin and Eastern Dykes , Hunter River, Ash Is , Nobbys & Stockton Breakwalls, Pt Hunter , Swansea channel , Blacksmiths Breakwall , Fraser Pk Rock Platforms .

So my fishing will be very restricted =
to beach fishing on Dudley or Redhead ( Sthern end) and rock platforms at Kahibah, Redhead, Glenrock, Dudley,
and maybe some prawning along the shallows in the sea grass beds at Croudace Bay and Warners Bay if the lockdown is still in effect when the prawns and squid and crabs start running in about November.
Can still collect sea cabbage and sea wireweed for bait, beach worms and pippies for bait, and I know of some storm water drains where there is fresh water ribbon weed that I can harvest / use for bait.

 

[kingofnobbys]

17 August Update.

Lady from across street is in JHH in the Covid ICU and ventilated , son came today and collected her dog and pet lovebirds . He looks pretty sick too. .

Been another shocker today in HNE region & WNSW regions.

Western NSW Region'.

Delta has reached Broken Hill in the Far West ( outback ) region of NSW.

Regional NSW & ACT .

Delta desasters are unfolding in the WNSW region & soon in Maitland + Cessnock LGAs.

A bit of forensic analysis for HNE Region by LGA , excluding Muswellbrook & Armidale LGAs IS VERY ELUMININATING , looks like the Lake Macquarie & Newcastle & Port Stephens LGAs are Delta numbers are responding to the CCT breaker lockdown , BUT this is not happening in the Cessnock & Maitland LGAs ( very much National Party ( Aus equivs of Republicans or Torries ) , lot of antivax / ultrarightwing / ultralibertian / covidiots in these 2 LGAs ).

National Situation
This Delta Outbreak = Australia's 3rd Wave has had 8749 Delta cases .

NSW had 452 new cases of Delta overnight , of these 351 cases where not isolated at all , and 297 cases are under under investigation by contact tracings …. VERY SCARY .
The NSW curve shows no sign of flattening and contact tracing has been clearly overwhelmed.
ONLY one person succumbed to Delta today.

Victoria had 24 new cases of Delta overnight , of these 3 are mystery cases.
Vic Health contact tracers have very strong forensic evidence that children have been exposed and contracted Delta in playgrounds ( in the open air through fleeting contacts with other children and parents ). THIS IS SCARY .

QLD had 1 case of Delta .

ACT had 17 new cases of Delta overnight , 7 of these are mystery cases.

NT's great run was broken with a traveller who brought Delta back into Darwin . back into CCT Breaker LkDn .
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/darwin-and-katherine-continue-covid-lockdown-as-aboriginal-health-groups-express-concern/ar-AANo9kn?ocid=msedgntp

Projection fine tuning

I have a good enough projection model to be able to extrapolate totals 2 - 3 weeks forward with better than 0.6% accuracy.
Is very clear now that the GSydney Delta Wave ( AU's 3rd Wave ) will be larger than Melbourne's 2nd Wave ( exactly 1 year ago ) , and will take considerably longer for the curve to flatten and for the local spread of Delta in NSW to be pushed back down to zero cases per day - this is still possible and will take tougher restrictions IMO
> nightly curfews
> bubble shrunk to 3km
> super hard ring fences around hotspot LGAs + a hard ring fence around Greater Sydney .

I have my doubts NSW can vax our way out this Delta Wave as too many people will refuse to maskup and vax completely and we will not be able to achieve Delta Ho via Lite LKDW V5 + mass vaxxing.

Daily cases in NSW will be ~ 600 / day on about 25 August and the total Delta cases in NSW will very likely hit 14000 (unless behaviour of people in NSW changes and the spread of Delta is throttled especially in GSydney).

NZ is back in a CCT Breaker Hard Lock after a case of Delta was discovered in the country. This bring's NZ's covid free run of 6 months to an end.

New Zealand had managed to stamp out the virus, and the last outbreak was in February. But Ardern had been warning that the contagiousness of the delta variant would likely require more drastic action than previous outbreaks.

New Zealand has also been slower than other developed nations to inoculate its population, leaving it vulnerable to outbreaks. Only 32% of people have had at least one shot and 18% are fully vaccinated.

And officials have been viewing a growing outbreak in nearby Sydney with alarm, saying they don't want to make the same mistakes by waiting too long to impose strict measures.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/zealand-enter-lockdown-single-virus-case-found-79494580
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/new-zealand-on-high-alert-after-mystery-covid-case-found-in-auckland/ar-AANoHdJ?ocid=msedgntp

 

[kingofnobbys]

19 August Update HORRIBLE DAY for NSW.

Recorded 633 new local Delta cases overnight , w/ 559 active in community and not isolating
This is NSW's worst day so far in the pandemic, and Australia's 3rd worst day and the highest daily case numbers since 5 August 2020 ( the worst day of the Melbourne 2nd Wave ).

Police found at least 400 examples yesterday of people who had left their homes while they were supposed to be isolating.

One man was given a $5,000 fine after telling police he was putting the bins out, but had in fact left his property.

"Imagine if out of those hundreds and hundreds of people doing the wrong thing, a couple have the virus and are going around the community spreading it, that sets all of us back," Ms Berejiklian said.

Police issued 736 penalty infringement notices yesterday to people breaching the public health orders.

The Premier said people should not be travelling further than 5 kilometres from their home.

"Stay at home, don't break the rules, everybody knows what they mean," she said.

"A small number of people are choosing to ignore what the rules are.".

NSW's Delta Wave total has reached 9382 cases since mid June.

Yet no plans to tighten up the current LITE ( STAGE 3) LOCKDOWN V5 to a FULL STAGE 4 or even STAGE 5 SUPERHARD LOCKDOWN despite there being no indications that the NSW epidemiological curve is flattening to any real extent , the fact that contact tracing is obviously overwhelmed ,the restrictions are not strong enough to curtail spread of Delta in the community and there are way too many people moving about and ignoring the health orders.

In Victoria 24 new delta cases were detected overnight, with 4 not isolating mystery cases. Victorian outbreak total is 254.
In ACT 22 new delta cases were detected overnight, all in iso. ACT's outbreak total is 67.

In the regions
HNE recorded 15 new Delta cases overnight bringing the local outbreak to 145 cases.
WNSW recorded 23 new Delta cases overnight bringing the local outbreak to 131 cases.

In HNE region (my local area)
Newcastle LGA recorded 10 new Delta cases , brings the cluster to 59 cases'.
Lake Macquarie LGA recorded 3 new Delta cases , brings our local cluster to 40 cases.
Maitland & Cessnock LGAs recorded 2 new caes ( Maitland LGA ) , brings the cluster to 33 cases.
Port Stephens LGA recorded zero cases overnight.
Epidemiological curves for HNE

In WNSW region

Modelling performance

Projection 1 ( slope 1.083 )
Err = +4.04% of the total = +379

Projection 2 ( transposed curved section of Melb 2nd Wave's 2nd order poly curve fit )
Err = -2.46% of the total = -231

Projection 3 ( fine tuned 2nd order poly curve fit on NSW data )
Err = +0.37% of the total = +35

Pretty good modelling with an error in an model's projections cf real world data inside +/- 2% of FSD ( FSD = full scale deflection ) in attempts to model a process.

In an engineering and scientific context modelling error under 1% is regarded as precision modelling and indicates excellent calibration.

 

[kingofnobbys]

19 August , we all thought yesterday was horrid .

Today was worse.

NSW had another surge of local Delta cases in Syndey , 681 new cases , 546 cases which is > 80% NOT isolating , brings the total local cases of Delta in this 3rd wave tp 10,063 in about 7 weeks.

HNE had 5 new cases all in Newcastle LGA.
WNSW had a shocker overnight with 25 new cases =
20 cases in Dubbo LGA
4 cases in Mudgee LGA
1 case in Bathurst LGA.

NSW remains in the current Lite Lockdown , no changes it restrictions , no hardening of the health orders , this is equivalent to a STAGE 3 Lockdown, despite experts and even the NSW CHO calling for the lockdown to be hardened in Greater Sydney to Stage 4 , and to a Stage 5 SUPERHARD lockdown in the hotspot LGA to stop people leaving and mixing.

Victoria has had a surge of 57 new delta case overnight , 3 are mystery cases , brings their total for this outbreak to 311 ,their Stage 4 HARD LOCKDOWN has been extended for 2 weeks.

ACT has had a surge of 16 new Delta cases overnight , 5 are mystery cases , this brings their total for this outbreak to 83.

QLD has recorded another OO day. Restrictions in QLD have been relaxed BUT the restrictions along the NSW - QLD border have been hardened.
ADF will deploy 100 personnel to assist QLD & NSW police in controlling / curtailing "travellers" sneaking into QLD from Delta ravaged Greater Sydney , NHE and WNSW and to manage the QLD-NSW border bubble for NWNSW , NCentralNSW and NRivers regions w/ QLD.

NT - OO day in Top End , the CCT BREAKER HD LKDN has ended in Darwin and is likely to lift in Katherine tomorrow.
Royal Flying Doctor Service is delivering COVID vaccines to remote NT cattle stations.

Compare with previous waves.

Regional NSW

HNE outbreaks

WNSW outbreaks

Modelling

If nothing changes in NSW , and the case numbers continue in the way they are going ATM.

I am usually very conservative in the use of BLACKBOX least squares regression models to extrapolate more than a few point forward , but PROJECTION 3 is seems an excellent fit to the real data and I observed an error of + 0.16% ( + 16 ) so I have a degree of confidence in it now.

Projections for NSW DELTA WAVE.
My model Projection 3 indicates the peak may occur in mid September (project ~ 800 cases per day ?) , will likely be seeing ~ 25,000 cases in NSW by then.

The models slope will be level when dy/dt = 0 @ t = 119 ==> the curve will be flat by mid October , will likely climax at ~ 42,000 cases and means there will be > 400 deaths in NSW.

These are TERRIFYING NUMBERS.

I HOPE my predictions are wrong and NSW Health takes expert advise by moving to at least a Stage 4 HARD LOCKDOWN in NSW and a Stage 5 SUPERHARD LOCKDOWN in the HOTSPOTS as a matter of extreme urgency.
NSW will not be able to vax it's way out this Delta Wave using predominantly AZ , will be a very tall order even with Pfizer or Moderna , because the Ro for Delta is so high , and will require > 90% the adult population of NSW to achieve anything near Ho , we will need to push for >> 90% of everyone in NSW to get close to Ho … a bridge too far I fear .

I think PM ScoMo, Fed Health Min Hunt, Berejiklian (NSW PM) , and Hazzard (NSW Health Min) ARE ALL DELUSIONAL WRT VAXING OUR WAY OUT THIS.

And "living with Delta" percolating in the community even with 100% AZ vaxed IS NOT AN OPTION , the ONLY MORAL OPTION is to drive for Delta ELINIMATION IN THE COMMUNITY ( so maybe 1 case / million ), else we risk more outbreaks forever.

VERY HARD SHARP CCT breakers lockdowns have been analysed by AU's Treasury Dept and expert virologists and epidemiologists and economists who are telling the state govts and federal govt these are cheaper economically than "living with Delta".
Doing what NSW has done in this Delta Wave is a recipe for an social , health and economic desaster as well as being morally bankrupt.



NZ has confirmed the seed case for their new outbreak is Delta originated in Sydney. Recorded 11 local Delta cases in Auckland to day. Total is now 21.
New Zealand says it has solved Covid outbreak 'puzzle'

https://www.msn.com/en-au/health/medical/new-zealand-says-it-has-solved-covid-outbreak-puzzle/ar-AANuU5o?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Yet another quarantine escape because 14days quarantine is NOT long enough with Delta strain, all too common here in AU for people to undergo mandatory quarantine on returning from o/seas or on travelling interstate or intrastate from a hotspot LGA where there were infected with Delta , or serving 14 days in mandated home iso , testing negative multiple times up til release , only to become symptomatic a week or more after release. I have been suggesting that the quarantine period needs to be extended to 28 days to be sure no one is released harbouring the virus , this was needed for Wild strain, Alpha and even more so for Delta.

How is the Vax Rollout going in Delta beleaguered NSW ?
New South Wales recorded more than 110,000 COVID-19 vaccinations yesterday, bringing the state to 5.5 million jabs overall ( most of these are AZ and first jabs in arms in last few weeks ).
16 - 30 yo Gps will be eligible for Pfizer at end of month, so those who live in Greater Sydney are playing the odds and getting AZ now ( if they can get near their GP to be assessed first) , or risking it and fronting up at chemists in the rollout system or mass vax hubs where they queue for hours for their jab.
30 - 40 yr olds are currently eligible for Pfizer , but good luck getting a booking as supply is constrained so many are also playing the odds and risking AZ instead as these are being PUSHED by ScoMo, Gladys, and Hazzard as some kind of golden bullet and a way out.
This is a near future desaster in the making like what's unfolding in Israel (who abandoned AZ in favor of Pfizer to fight their Delta Wave No1 and are now in the grips of new Delta Wave).

 

[kingofnobbys]

20 August UPDATE - another horrible day.

In NSW 642 local Delta cases overnight , 579 not isolating ( > 90% ) . 4 more deaths. Total in last 8 wks = 10705.

In Greater Sydney , the hotspots have been placed into a Stage 4 HARD LOCKDOWN ( nightly curfews + 1 hr per alone exercise + mask mandate now when ever away from home + workers in the Hotspots are banned from leaving their LGA unless they have a permit and forbidden entering regional areas outside Greater Sydney, this will be in effect til end of September.

Rest of Greater Sydney & regional NSW remains in Stage 3 LOCKDOWN , but essential works must not enter regional NSW unless they have a permit and at least one dose of a covid vaccine
Regional NSW and the mask mandate is extended to outdoors except when exercising. The lockdown has also been extended til end of September.

HNE = 3 cases , none isolating. Total in outbreak = 153
Newcastle LGA = 2 ==> total = 66
Maitland LGA = 1 ==> total = 34

WNSW = 27 cases , none isolating , ADF have been deployed to assist with vax rollout and testing in western region communities. Total in outbreak = 185.
Dubbo LGA = 21 ==> total = 159
Burke LGA = 2 ==> total = 5
Bathurst LGA = 1
Gilgandria Shire = 2
Goodooga Shire = 2

In Vic 54 local Delta cases overnight , 6 not isolating , Delta has spread to regional Victoria again and a case now in found in Shepparton. Total in outbreak 365.

In ACT 12 local Delta cases overnight , 1 not isolating . The ACT Hard CCT BKR lockdown is extended by one week. Total in outbreak 95.

In QLD , 1 mystery covid case in home quarantine has been found overnight . Total in outbreak = 135. QLD now in Stage 2 restrictions , but have tightened up entry requirement from NSW & Vic some more to keep people from bringing Delta into QLD.

NT has lifted the CCT BKR lockdowns in Katherine and Darwin.

In NZ , the Delta outbreak that leaked out from NSW has reached Wellington. There were 11 new cases detected , 8 which were in Auckland. Total = 31.
The NZ Stage 4 Hard CCT BKR lockdown has been extended by 2 weeks .

 

[kingofnobbys]

21 August --- Australia's worse day of the pandemic with 903 new cases overnight

, compounded by 1000s of covidiots tossing a mass temper tantrum that turned violent during so called "Freedom Riots" in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane maskless and with zero regard for social distancing.


The majority of Australians , especially in Sydney & NSW , in Melbourne and Vic , in Canberra and ACT where Stage 4 Hard Lockdowns and Stage 3 Lockdowns are in effect , have been greatly outraged by this very dangerous, selfish , , self entitled , self-indulgent and violent behaviour of this very small hardcore libertarian , covidiot, Qanon, antivaxxer , antimasker , covidenier minority creating 3 superspreader events in the midst of raging pandemic.

A GREAT many people are beyond angry about this extremely selfish, self entitled, self-indulgent, and violent behaviour of what in effect was a few hundred hardcore covidiots in Sydney today .
Calls are being made to put a 48hr curfew in effect in Melbourne and Sydney.

All hopes of NSW , especially Greater Sydney coming out of lockdown before Xmas have evaporated because of the Sydney "Freedom Riot" , there is little doubt Delta infected rioters were present and Delta has been widely spread in today's riot in Sydney and we can expect a huge surge in "mystery" cases in the coming 2 to 3 weeks and we'll be lucky to get away with under 1000 new cases per day in Greater Sydney next week , and god knows how many thousand cases / day we'll see by mid September - all bets are off regards modelling past then week.

A surge will also be directly caused in Melbourne and regional Victoria as many of the rioters are known to have travelled to Melbourne from all over Victoria to participate.

Fears are that many infected people from NSW snuck across the NSW-QLD border to participate in the Brisbane Riot , BTW Brisbane and QLD are NOT in lockdown and haven't been for several days. This will very likely see Brisbane & regional QLD forced back into Stage 3 or Stage 4 lockdowns when the Brisbane superspreader riot today creates new Delta clusters.

NSW had another massive surge that added 825 local Delta cases over night (mostly in Greater Sydney in the hotspot LGAs ) and 4 more deaths , 89% of which were not in iso . ==> total = 11530 in 65 days.

Regional NSW

HNE saw 1 new local Delta case overnight ( in Newcastle LGA , in iso ) ==> total = 154.

WNSW saw a surge 38 new local Delta cases overnight ( all in the community, with 32 in Dubbo LGA ) ==> total = 228.
Dubbo + 32
Walgett + 1
Bathurst + 2
Wellington NSW + 2
Narromine + 2

Victoria had another surge that added 61 local Delta cases over night (mostly in Greater Melbourne , 15 of which were not in iso . ==> total = 426.
Regional Victoria has seen the Stage 4 Lockdown restarted with Delta cluster in Shepparton LGA growing with 4 more cases discovered ==> total = 21.

ACT had another surge that added 8 local Delta cases over night ( all in iso ). ==> total = 103.

Modelling

Projection 3 is still giving good forward prediction capability.
Error = - 0.23% ( -27 out on the total of 11530 ).

I expect my model to break down and loose precision over the next few weeks as the effects of the Sydney "Freedom Riot" cause a massive new surge in Delta cases in Greater Sydney.

NZ saw a surge of Delta cases overnight of 18 new cases in Auckland and 3 new cases in Wellington, brings NZ's Delta outbreak to a total of 51.

 

[kingofnobbys]

22 August

New record for Australia and for Australia. Just gets worse and worse .

NSW recorded 830 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 763 not in iso ( 92% ) , all but 43 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 66 days for NSW = 12360. 4 more deaths.

Victoria recorded 65 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 10 not in iso , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 491.
2 more cases in Shepparton LGA ==> total = 23.
A new case has been detected in the Victorian High Country @ Mansfield.
Regional Victoria has had their Stage 4 CCTBKR lockdown extended , linked to the Shepparton cluster.
Another large and violent Covidiot "freedom" riot in Melbourne today.

ACT recorded 19 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 2 not in iso , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 122. Disturbingly these new cases are linked to the Disability Care (NDIS) system.

Qld recorded another OO day. In the QLD - NSW border bubble there was a large Covidiot rally today, 2,000 protesters, trying to force their way through the border at Coolangatta from both sides of the border crossing , and tossing a tantrum about border restrictions and limitations , the fact covid QR -code-check-ins were introduced for taxis and ridesharing.

NT recorded 1 new LOCAL mystery case of Delta o/night , not in iso.
There was a small Covidiot rally today in Darwin.
In NT another croc attack - a search is underway near Wadeye for a man missing following capsizing-of boat in esterine croc infested waters.

Been there - it's very remote country but super scenic and full of wildlife .
Data

HNE

Local for me

Jesmond, Cardiff, Edgeworth, Glendale, Islington are way too close for comfort , all inside 10min by car of my home.

WNSW

Modeling

Projections

Slight divergence to a higher R value in the combined model observed ==> Projection 3 error = -0.46% (-56).

NZ recorded 21 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 20 in Auckland LGA , 1 in Wellington LGA , total in NZ's latest outbreak = 51.

 

[kingofnobbys]

23 AUGUST UPDATE
Situation is still deteriorating.

NSW recorded 818 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 776 not in iso ( 95% ) , all but 26 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 67 days for NSW = 13178. 3 more deaths.

Regional NSW

HNE recorded 2 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 1 not in iso . Total = 163.

WNSW recorded 24 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , NONE in iso . Total = 283.

Victoria recorded 71 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 22 not in iso , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 562.

Victoria's largest clusters
Shepparton = 14
Newport = 10
Broadmeadows = 8
Royal Melbourne Hospital (again !) = 5

ACT recorded 16 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 3 not in iso , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 138.

Qld recorded 1 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , not in iso , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 135.

NT recorded 0 new LOCAL mystery cases..

NZ recorded 35 new LOCAL Delta cases overnight, Nation wide Stage 4 lockdown extended , total for NZ's latest Delta outbreak = 107.
Of the 107 cases in the cluster, 72 are already epidemiologically linked to other community cases identified in the outbreak.
11 were found in Wellington with a few scattered across the Nth Island , rest in Auckland.
Nth Islanders are not permitted to travel to the Sth Island under the Stage 4 Lockdown.

Hospitalisation

Modelling

Projections

Projection 3 yielded a error of -0.62% => low by 88 caseS total .

 

[kingofnobbys]

24 AUGUST update

A small breather in the Delta explosion.
NSW recorded 757 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 671 not in iso ( 89% ) , all but 37 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 68 days for NSW = 13931. 1 more death , a fit young mother in her 30s..

Regional NSW

HNE
HNE recorded 1 new LOCAL case of Delta o/night , in iso . Total = 164.

WNSW
WNSW recorded 36 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , NONE in iso . Total = 319.
WNSW now a REGION OF CONCERN.

NSW DELTA HEATMAPS
BALLINA TO KEMPSIE W TO ARMIDALE

KEMPSI TO SYDNEY W TO DUBBO THEN WARREN

SYDNEY TO JARVIS BAY W TO BATHURST

DUBBO W TO BURKE

DUBBO W TO CTL DARLING

NOWRA W TO EUCLAR CORNER

EUCLAR W TO WENTWORTH

FAR SW ( CTL DARLING )

CTRL DARLING N TO BURKE TO FAR NW CORNER

ZOOM-IN
FORSTER TO BULAHDELA AND DUNGOG

BULAHDELA TO NEWCASTL AND CESSNOCK

NEWCASTLE LAKE MACQUARIE S TO THE ENTRANCE ( CTL COAST )

THE ENTRANCE W TO LITHGOW

THE ENTRANCE GOSFORD S TO NTH SYDNEY W TO PENRITH N TO LITHGOW

NTH SYDNEY W BLUE MTS S TO WOOLONGONG

WOOLONGONG S TO KIAMA

KIAMA S TO SUSSEX INLET

Victoria recorded 50 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 10 not in iso , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 612.

ACT recorded 30 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 5 not in iso , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 168.

Qld recorded 2 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , not in iso , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 137.
The mystery case is a new strain of Delta not seen in Australia before now , and QLD Health do not know where he caught it.

NZ recorded 41 new LOCAL Delta cases overnight, total for NZ's latest Delta outbreak = 107.
Of the 148 cases in the cluster.
3 were found in Wellington , rest in Auckland.

Modelling

Projections

Projection 3 error = - 0.72% (low by 193600 on total of 13931.