kingofnobbys
BD.org Sicko
My wife and I are still voluntarily social isolating , NSW has flattened the curve , but there are still active cases of covid19 in my area and we are not prepared to risk unnecessary contact with anyone who might be covid19 infectious while being asymptomatic ( and not yet tested / detected by the sentinel testing that's being carried out here ), especially after literally 3 weeks of mass rallies all over the state..
Australia's daily Covid19 detections :
Australian lockdown stages
Highest stage of lockdown is Stage 5 = mandatory enforced STAY AT HOME ORDERS for everyone except essentials.
Highest level we had in Australia & NZ was Stage 4 .
Then loosen to Stage 3 if curve has been flattened.
Then loosen to Stage 2 ( where we were til this week , assumes only occasional cases of covid19 ).
Then loosen to Stage 1 ( where we were hoping be by then this month or end of July , ScoMo and CMO didn't expect Australia to be there originally til September or October , when JOBKEEPER and JOBSEEKER finish ) = new post Covid19 NORMAL.
The lizards, cooking and gardening are keeping us sane and my wife is also spending lots of time connecting with family by email and facebook and the phone and is doing lots of craft & Cricut stuff ( we are home bodies so social isolation is something we can handle - we just miss our grandson and son and the occasional visit from friends and family ).
Unfortunately a week or two shy of the NSW and Victorian governments "normalizing" things by letting larger groups to get together and just in time for the winter school vacation – Monday 6 July to Friday 17 July
… bummer kids
, no trips up to the tropics this year , Australia's second wave of covid19 has likely started , it'll be another home holiday , or maybe a trip a regional intrastate area if they are lucky.
I predicted this back on 2nd June :
as a result of the Covidiot rally there in the last weekend in May .
The actual charts ( note the step change and then the rampup evident in Victoria's curve )
and more detail for last 2 weeks ( I think I can see a step change in NSW as well , but will need to do some LS analysis to see if the change is statistically real )
Very quick analysis is 8 June - 12 June ( too early to see effect of mass rallies) , av was 2 cases per day ( round down from 2.5 ).
After 12 June , av has stepped up to 4 cases per day ( a doubling , round up from 3.7 ).
My suspicion is the covid19 deniers wont ever admit they might have caught covid19 by fronting to be tested unless they are sick enough to call an ambulance , so it's likely to take a few more weeks before their infections become bad enough for them to be forced to go to the GP for treatment for "the flu" once they find off the shelf flu meds ( without Codeine ) are not helping ,so it's likely they will "soldier on" if they still have a job and spread their infection very widely or they are traced by clusters caused by their selfishness..
By admitting they attended a Covid Rally they will be risking to very steep fines from the NSW Police or the Vic Police and many of them will not be in a position to afford these fines , nor will their organisers or provocateers.
Victoria has had a step change to double digit new infections each day since Friday which is perfect timing for Covidiot rallies causing new clusters (none of these people bothered socially distancing or wearing face masks ), and recent mass BLM and anti-immigration detention rallies ( who at least tried to socially distance and most wore surgical face masks or N95 respirators) in the last week) .
How long are people who are infected with covid19 shedding virus in the act of living ?
I've seen lots of papers that indicate for several weeks even if they never become symptomatic ( so the strategy of wait til you have flu , cold or some strange symptoms is VERY FLAWED , essentially it seems if you have been exposed , you can become infected right away and even if asymptomatic ( and don't know you are infected ) you are spreading covid19 virus laden particles around everywhere you go and on everything you breath on or near from the 7th day and for up to 35 days (*!! 5 weeks !!! later If the cut off is 10%) , or 45 days ( that's 7 weeks nearly after infection !!)
Victorian Govt are saying about 75% are local transmission and are blaming
> community complacency
> stupidity
<== a GP locum working while infected ( he knew he was Covid19 positive and so far 8 people caught covid19 from him , he has no excuse , he's should have known better but ignored the rules )
<== staff at a Melbourne Motel Quarantine facility were flouting the rules and spread the virus amoungst themselves and to their friends and families
and only a small number of imports in this case.
Covid19 hotspots ( likely to be locked down and placed under Stage 5 (MANDATORY STAY AT HOME ORDERS)) , over 1 million residents are effected by this.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-21/victorias-coronavirus-hotspots-are-all-in-melbourne/12377858
If people can't handle Stage 4 and Stage 3 , they'll find Stage 5 hard to handle , but most can cope as has been seen overseas in places like the UK, Italy, Spain, NYC.
So literally on the eve of relaxations in Victoria & NSW to L4 restriction ( to essentially the new NORMAL ) , the Victorians have stepped back up from L3 restrictions to L2 restrictions , looks like area L4 ( stay at home orders ) are are likely to lock down hotspot suburbs in Victoria , and NSW is talking about reclosing the Victoria - NSW border THOUGH the NSW - Vic border is open but NSW government advise very strongly that NSW residents NOT travel to Victoria , and that Melbournians don't come to NSW over the holidays.
ScoMo ( PM ) and the NSW Premier are very reluctant to reinstate L3 elsewhere , but this might be forced onto them ( even NZ has had new cases , imports ( a Brit who was given compassionate leave to travel to NZ to see dying parents who brought covid19 with him ).
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/victoria-has-imposed-new-coronavirus-restrictions-after-a-spike-in-cases-here-s-what-the-other-states-are-saying/ar-BB15Oz4d?ocid=msedgntp
Hopefully Victoria's Health Department can get control of this step change up to double digit new daily covid19 infections before it gets out of hand again like it was in March & April . At least NSW and Victoria are much better prepared now than we were in February and March and April to deal with covid19 ( a lot has been learnt , and we are bumping up sentinel and targeted testing , and have learnt from mistakes made (here and abroad)).
I'm very worried that one off tests are not enough to be sure someone is truly virus free. I think because of the test specifivity and sensitivity , and local very low prevalence of covid19 , at least 3 tests in series are needed to assure NEGATIVE tests are TRUE NEGATIVEs and not FALSE NEGATIVEs, and we are unwittingly giving people who might be asymptomatic but shedding virus freedom and a false sense of security.
<< edited for more clarity :
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/antibody-tests-guidelines.html
Here in Australia , population 25.4 million, we likely have under 2000 people currently infected with Covid19 , officially only 600 active cases as off today ( see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/ )
So Australia's prevalence of Covid19 is way lower than 1% and this means PPV and NPV is very poor for the tests being used here ( nasal & throat swabs looking for RNA and active virus ), my calculations indicate a minimum of 3 serial negatives are needed to confirm TRUE NEGATIVE , but this is not what I'm told is happening even in nursing homes unless daily tests are done , every day for everyone .
Try getting people to front up 3 or 4 times over a week or so to get tested unless they are locked up in quarantine and have no choice .>>>
Up til Friday , NSW and Victoria were at logger heads with Queensland , South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory demanding they reopen their borders . This argument is now over, Queensland, Northern Territory, Western Australia and South Australia have all decided to delay opening their borders to NSW and Victoria residents for at least another month or two , to see what happens . Tasmania's moat remains closed , as does NZ's moat .
Maybe in a few months we'll be able to have my son and grandson visit us ( safely , without worrying about the possibility of them bringing covid19 to us by accident ). Very disappointing as we are missing them and were hoping to see both them over the Winter school break.
So we've been self isolating since early February , furthest my wife and I have travelled has been to mailbox and our greenstrip , and to my garage.
My Pajero hasn't been driven , even turned on , since Mid May , but at least I know the battery will remain fully charged because the starter battery has a 160W portable solar panel mounted just inside the back cargo bay door on a PWM charge controller , and the mechanic told me he thinks the car will be fine now even if I don't use for 12 months as all the fluids were changed in the last service, so if we need to use the Pajero for an emergency , it'll good to go at a moments' notice.
We are still getting all weekly shops ( meat , veg , fruit , and basics ) contact free home delivered, same applies to meds and medical needs.
And the lizards' needs too.
It's all ordered either online or over the phone and we use either PayPal or my visadebit card to pay.
My wife is an avid reader of "who done it"s , and is getting her reading fixes via her Kindle.
I've been dragging out some of my old research projects and reviewing them and looking for more up to date research , maybe to return on a parttime basis to research ( home based ).
My deck project is on hold for now , was hoping that ScoMo's HOMEBUILDER SCHEME would help give me incentive to tell my builder to get the ball rolling ( all I need is a DA ) and a start date , it's all pretty well designed and specified .
But the new COVID19 HOMEBUILDER SCHEME only applies to home renovations or home improvements or new home projects of at least $150,000 (fine if you are building a new home , or have a lazy $150,000 laying about that can be used immediately to do a MAJOR renovation or house upgrade ( ie add a floor , add more rooms ) , and then the government gives a grant of $25000. So it's way out of my project's league.
Same applies to my roll off roof astrography observatory project.
Australia's daily Covid19 detections :

Australian lockdown stages

Highest stage of lockdown is Stage 5 = mandatory enforced STAY AT HOME ORDERS for everyone except essentials.
Highest level we had in Australia & NZ was Stage 4 .
Then loosen to Stage 3 if curve has been flattened.
Then loosen to Stage 2 ( where we were til this week , assumes only occasional cases of covid19 ).
Then loosen to Stage 1 ( where we were hoping be by then this month or end of July , ScoMo and CMO didn't expect Australia to be there originally til September or October , when JOBKEEPER and JOBSEEKER finish ) = new post Covid19 NORMAL.
The lizards, cooking and gardening are keeping us sane and my wife is also spending lots of time connecting with family by email and facebook and the phone and is doing lots of craft & Cricut stuff ( we are home bodies so social isolation is something we can handle - we just miss our grandson and son and the occasional visit from friends and family ).
Unfortunately a week or two shy of the NSW and Victorian governments "normalizing" things by letting larger groups to get together and just in time for the winter school vacation – Monday 6 July to Friday 17 July
… bummer kids
I predicted this back on 2nd June :

as a result of the Covidiot rally there in the last weekend in May .
The actual charts ( note the step change and then the rampup evident in Victoria's curve )

and more detail for last 2 weeks ( I think I can see a step change in NSW as well , but will need to do some LS analysis to see if the change is statistically real )

Very quick analysis is 8 June - 12 June ( too early to see effect of mass rallies) , av was 2 cases per day ( round down from 2.5 ).
After 12 June , av has stepped up to 4 cases per day ( a doubling , round up from 3.7 ).
My suspicion is the covid19 deniers wont ever admit they might have caught covid19 by fronting to be tested unless they are sick enough to call an ambulance , so it's likely to take a few more weeks before their infections become bad enough for them to be forced to go to the GP for treatment for "the flu" once they find off the shelf flu meds ( without Codeine ) are not helping ,so it's likely they will "soldier on" if they still have a job and spread their infection very widely or they are traced by clusters caused by their selfishness..
By admitting they attended a Covid Rally they will be risking to very steep fines from the NSW Police or the Vic Police and many of them will not be in a position to afford these fines , nor will their organisers or provocateers.
Victoria has had a step change to double digit new infections each day since Friday which is perfect timing for Covidiot rallies causing new clusters (none of these people bothered socially distancing or wearing face masks ), and recent mass BLM and anti-immigration detention rallies ( who at least tried to socially distance and most wore surgical face masks or N95 respirators) in the last week) .
How long are people who are infected with covid19 shedding virus in the act of living ?
I've seen lots of papers that indicate for several weeks even if they never become symptomatic ( so the strategy of wait til you have flu , cold or some strange symptoms is VERY FLAWED , essentially it seems if you have been exposed , you can become infected right away and even if asymptomatic ( and don't know you are infected ) you are spreading covid19 virus laden particles around everywhere you go and on everything you breath on or near from the 7th day and for up to 35 days (*!! 5 weeks !!! later If the cut off is 10%) , or 45 days ( that's 7 weeks nearly after infection !!)

Victorian Govt are saying about 75% are local transmission and are blaming
> community complacency
> stupidity
<== a GP locum working while infected ( he knew he was Covid19 positive and so far 8 people caught covid19 from him , he has no excuse , he's should have known better but ignored the rules )
<== staff at a Melbourne Motel Quarantine facility were flouting the rules and spread the virus amoungst themselves and to their friends and families
and only a small number of imports in this case.

Covid19 hotspots ( likely to be locked down and placed under Stage 5 (MANDATORY STAY AT HOME ORDERS)) , over 1 million residents are effected by this.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-21/victorias-coronavirus-hotspots-are-all-in-melbourne/12377858
If people can't handle Stage 4 and Stage 3 , they'll find Stage 5 hard to handle , but most can cope as has been seen overseas in places like the UK, Italy, Spain, NYC.
So literally on the eve of relaxations in Victoria & NSW to L4 restriction ( to essentially the new NORMAL ) , the Victorians have stepped back up from L3 restrictions to L2 restrictions , looks like area L4 ( stay at home orders ) are are likely to lock down hotspot suburbs in Victoria , and NSW is talking about reclosing the Victoria - NSW border THOUGH the NSW - Vic border is open but NSW government advise very strongly that NSW residents NOT travel to Victoria , and that Melbournians don't come to NSW over the holidays.
ScoMo ( PM ) and the NSW Premier are very reluctant to reinstate L3 elsewhere , but this might be forced onto them ( even NZ has had new cases , imports ( a Brit who was given compassionate leave to travel to NZ to see dying parents who brought covid19 with him ).
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/victoria-has-imposed-new-coronavirus-restrictions-after-a-spike-in-cases-here-s-what-the-other-states-are-saying/ar-BB15Oz4d?ocid=msedgntp
Hopefully Victoria's Health Department can get control of this step change up to double digit new daily covid19 infections before it gets out of hand again like it was in March & April . At least NSW and Victoria are much better prepared now than we were in February and March and April to deal with covid19 ( a lot has been learnt , and we are bumping up sentinel and targeted testing , and have learnt from mistakes made (here and abroad)).
I'm very worried that one off tests are not enough to be sure someone is truly virus free. I think because of the test specifivity and sensitivity , and local very low prevalence of covid19 , at least 3 tests in series are needed to assure NEGATIVE tests are TRUE NEGATIVEs and not FALSE NEGATIVEs, and we are unwittingly giving people who might be asymptomatic but shedding virus freedom and a false sense of security.
<< edited for more clarity :

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/antibody-tests-guidelines.html
Here in Australia , population 25.4 million, we likely have under 2000 people currently infected with Covid19 , officially only 600 active cases as off today ( see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/ )
So Australia's prevalence of Covid19 is way lower than 1% and this means PPV and NPV is very poor for the tests being used here ( nasal & throat swabs looking for RNA and active virus ), my calculations indicate a minimum of 3 serial negatives are needed to confirm TRUE NEGATIVE , but this is not what I'm told is happening even in nursing homes unless daily tests are done , every day for everyone .
Try getting people to front up 3 or 4 times over a week or so to get tested unless they are locked up in quarantine and have no choice .>>>
Up til Friday , NSW and Victoria were at logger heads with Queensland , South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory demanding they reopen their borders . This argument is now over, Queensland, Northern Territory, Western Australia and South Australia have all decided to delay opening their borders to NSW and Victoria residents for at least another month or two , to see what happens . Tasmania's moat remains closed , as does NZ's moat .
Maybe in a few months we'll be able to have my son and grandson visit us ( safely , without worrying about the possibility of them bringing covid19 to us by accident ). Very disappointing as we are missing them and were hoping to see both them over the Winter school break.
So we've been self isolating since early February , furthest my wife and I have travelled has been to mailbox and our greenstrip , and to my garage.
My Pajero hasn't been driven , even turned on , since Mid May , but at least I know the battery will remain fully charged because the starter battery has a 160W portable solar panel mounted just inside the back cargo bay door on a PWM charge controller , and the mechanic told me he thinks the car will be fine now even if I don't use for 12 months as all the fluids were changed in the last service, so if we need to use the Pajero for an emergency , it'll good to go at a moments' notice.
We are still getting all weekly shops ( meat , veg , fruit , and basics ) contact free home delivered, same applies to meds and medical needs.
And the lizards' needs too.
It's all ordered either online or over the phone and we use either PayPal or my visadebit card to pay.
My wife is an avid reader of "who done it"s , and is getting her reading fixes via her Kindle.
I've been dragging out some of my old research projects and reviewing them and looking for more up to date research , maybe to return on a parttime basis to research ( home based ).
My deck project is on hold for now , was hoping that ScoMo's HOMEBUILDER SCHEME would help give me incentive to tell my builder to get the ball rolling ( all I need is a DA ) and a start date , it's all pretty well designed and specified .
But the new COVID19 HOMEBUILDER SCHEME only applies to home renovations or home improvements or new home projects of at least $150,000 (fine if you are building a new home , or have a lazy $150,000 laying about that can be used immediately to do a MAJOR renovation or house upgrade ( ie add a floor , add more rooms ) , and then the government gives a grant of $25000. So it's way out of my project's league.
Same applies to my roll off roof astrography observatory project.