Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".

[kingofnobbys]

25 AUGUST UPDATE.


BIG NEWS DAY , AND MOST IT WAS HORRIBLE FOR NSW.

NE Vic & SE NSW coast, Illawarra , Sydney , Central Coast , Lake Macquarie and Newcastle have been hammered since Sunday by a very powerful Tasman Cyclone. Seas peaked over 10m and winds were Category 2 cyclone strength with driving rain, snow in higher areas ( including Blue Mts, Snowys , Canberra & Barrington Tops).
Many trees were downed and homes and businesses deroofed.

NSW recorded Australia's worst day of the entire pandemic AGAIN , 919 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 813 not in iso ( 89% ) , all but 54 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 69 days for NSW = 14850. 1 more death .

Major metro public hospitals are under strain with over 100 new severely Delta patients arriving every day and ambulences being forced to wait often for several hours for a bed in the Covid Ward to be found . Metro Private Hospitals are being conscripted to work as overflow Covid wards.
NSW achieved 6million covid vax jabs today ( 1 week early ) , but the huge majority of these are 1st jabs of AZ and not showing any measureable effect on the hospital covid admissions ( as expected ).

NSW Health believes some of the new severely ill Delta admissions were "freedom" covidiot rioters on Saturday in Sydney

Regional NSW

HNE region slope is now 1.02 .

HNE
Newcastle LGA recorded 1 new LOCAL case of Delta o/night , in iso .

Port Stephens LGA recorded 1 new LOCAL case of Delta o/night , in iso .

Lake Macquarie LGA recorded 1 new LOCAL case of Delta o/night , was NOT in iso , a Windale man travelled to a Sydney Hotspot on weekend then returned home , he has been fined for breaching Health Orders and lying about it , and his block of units are now in HARD LOCKDOWN . This is closest we've seen to us = VERY WORRYING for our neighbours who need to work as essential workers and can't self iso.

Cessnock LGA recorded 1 new LOCAL case of Delta o/night , in iso .
HNE total is now 168.

Port Stephens LGA slope is now 1.01 .
Newcastle LGA slope is now 1.06 .

WNSW

None of these 49 caes were in iso. WNSW total is now 368.

Walgette slope is now 1.02 .
Mudgee slope is now 1.02 .
Bathurst slope is now ~1.00 .


Victoria recorded 45 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 9 not in iso , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 657.
Shepparton LGA Delta cluster has grown overnight to 50.

ACT recorded 9 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 1 not in iso , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 177.

Qld recorded OO o/night , not in iso , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 137.
Because Q/hotels are very close to capacity , QLD Health have ordered T
1) a 2 week hold on all interstate relocations
2) no one from NSW , Vic , ACT or NZ can enter the state.

WA recorded OO overnight. WA has eased border closures for QLD, SA but has now banned travellers from NZ.

NZ recorded 62 new LOCAL Delta cases overnight, total for NZ's latest Delta outbreak = 200.
50 of these were in Auckland, rest in Wellington.

MODELLING

NSW cumulative total in last 10 days Slope = 1.07
Doesn't take into account the impulse of new delta cases that will be starting to impact on NSW Delta numbers from the riot on Saturday.


PROJECTION
Victoria's 2nd wave peaked about day 53 , and the curve was crushed by about 119.
NSW's Delta wave has not peaked yet , is now day 70 , so very unlikely to be out of this by day 120 ( 14 Oct ) assuming the Wave lasts a similar length of time as Victoria's 2nd Wave ( highly unlikely with Delta and the number of people not isolating or self quarantining when then they are case contacts ).

Projection 3 error = -0.89% total ( low by 132 on total of 14850 ).

 

[kingofnobbys]

26 August , a horrible milestone in the NSW DELTA WAVE and AUSTRALIA's worse day in the pandemic with Australia's daily new Delta case load crashing though 1000 cases / day , at 1130 today.

NSW recorded Australia's worst day of the entire pandemic AGAIN , 1024 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 913 not in iso ( 91.6% ) , all but 35 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 71 days for NSW = 15874.
3 more deaths, another person in their 30s, 2 died in their homes "unexpectedly".
Westmead Hospital is now FULL and can't take any more Delta patients, Similar at Concord Hospital.
ICUs are at 80% capacity in Sydney. ICU clinicians are calling for a NATIONAL ICU system where all states share ICU beds and critical patients are airlifted to other capital and major regional hospitals and private and military ICU's are part of the national system.

VAX ROLLOUT

CHANGES TO RESTRICTIONS IN NSW

…. stupidity when the curve is going the exact wrong direction. Unbelieveable popularism flying in the face reality and best scientific advise.

Despite YESTERDAYS & TODAYS CATACLYMIC CASE NUMBERS, THE HOSPITAL SYSTEM IN SYDNEY BEING CLOSE TO OVERWHELMED AND THE ACCELERATING TRAJECTORY OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CURVE (and the lack of any indication of the DAILY CASE NUMBERS PEAKING or the CURVE FLATTENING ) , Premier Berejiklian & NSW Health Min Hazzard are telling us the hospital system is coping and have made a popularist & VERY POLITICAL decision to loosen restrictions ( reward for reaching 60% w/ 1st jab in NSW ) for the fully vaxed WHO WILL BE ABLE to spend more time outside so long as it's the family grp and still inside the 5km home bubble ) . GOBSMACKED !!!

DATA

REGIONAL NSW

Regional Stage 4 Lockdowns Extended.

HNE

WNSW

Delta infection positivity rate in Wilcannia is 7% , and the fully vaxxed rate is the same, ADF and RFDS are now going door2door in WNSW communities ( especially vulnerable and aboriginal communities) in Goodooga and Wilcannia ).

Victoria recorded 80 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 40 not in iso ( was not 13 reported earlier ), total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 737.
Shepparton LGA Delta cluster has grown overnight to 68. The ADF have deployed 80 troops to assist the thousands of locals who are in mandatory home isolation , will providing hampers and assisting with iso testing.

ACT recorded 14 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , ALL in iso , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 191.

Qld recorded OO o/night , not in iso , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 137.

WA has broken ground for regional purpose built quarantine centre modelled on Howard Springs.

NT have lifted that territory's mandatory mask mandate , Delta has been eliminated in the NT.

SA , Tasmania & WA recorded 00 days.

NZ recorded 68 new LOCAL Delta cases overnight, total for NZ's latest Delta outbreak = 277.
14 of these were in Wellington, rest in Auckland.

HOSPITALISATION

DEATHS ( ALL RECENT IN NSW )

MODELLING

PROJECTIONS
Projection 3 error = -1.11% total ( low by 176 on total of 15874 ).
Linear model for last 10 days gives a slope of 1.07 , and it's clear NSW Delta Wave curve will overtake the Melbourne 2nd Wave curve in next few days.

UoSydney Projections based on ScoMo / Berejiklian opening up plan is terrifying !

 

[kingofnobbys]

27 August , a horrible day in the NSW DELTA WAVE ..

NSW recorded 882 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 773 mystery cases ( 87.6% ) , all but 42 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 72 days for NSW = 16756.
2 more deaths.

Data

Regional NSW

HNE

WNSW

Victoria recorded 79 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 26 mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 816.

Regional Victoria
Shepparton LGA Delta cluster has grown overnight to 79 . 1/3 of everyone who lives in Shepparton is in mandatory home iso.
The ADF have deployed 80 troops to assist the thousands of locals who are in mandatory home isolation , will providing hampers and assisting with iso testing , and assisting with essential resupply runs ( food, essential consumeables, medicines etc ).

ACT recorded 21 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 6 mystery are cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 212.

QLD recorded OO o/night , 11 SEQLD LGAs have now moved STAGE 3 LOCKDOWN from STAGE 4 , so queenslanders in SEQLD are now enjoying the same freedoms everyone else on QLD have only THE MASK MANDATE remains in force.

WA has found 2 long haul truckdrivers from NSW have tested positive for Delta , fortunately they slept and ate in the truck's cab enroute from NSW through VIC and SA to WA and are considered low risk , they are now in mandatory quarantine.

SA, TAS, NT & WA all recorded 00s .

NZ recorded 70 new LOCAL Delta cases overnight, total for NZ's latest Delta outbreak = 347.
ALL in Auckland. NZ's STAGE 4 LOCKDOWN has been extended.

MODELLING

Projection 3 error = -1.21% ( of 16756 ) = low by 352.
NSW Delta Wave Curve is still looking exponential , has transitioned to stepped exponential curve , slope ~ 1.08 and will overtake Melbourne's 2nd Wave trajectory in next day or so.
Unlike Melbourne's 2nd Wave, the curve has neither peaked yet , nor is it showing any indication of flattening, essential Greater Sydney's Delta Wave and the linked outbreaks in WNSW are out of control still BECAUSE the NSW Premier & Health Min left it too long to lockdown hard and Delta is now deeply embedded in MOST of W, NW, SW , Central Syd and clusters are growing in Illawarra, Nthn Beaches and Eastern Beaches & in the Central Coast.


A comment on ScoMo & Premier Berejiklian plan to open up Australia and NSW @ 80% (ADULTS) fully vaxed .

To avoid very severe Delta illness the following calc reveals


Ro|wild = 10 - 14.
Assume this takes into acct effect of Stage 4 LKDN (essentially 1/2 the unrestd spread rate).
Call Ro|LD = 7
take Ho Eqn & adjust V.
V = vax efficacy ~ 90%
H=Ho/V = 6/( 7x0.9) = 95% ... ==> 95% of ALL Australians will need to be fully vaxxed = A VERY TALL ORDER.

And to hope Delta can be treated like a bad flu is a fool's folly.


People will still get sick enough to require a hospital stay ==> Delta will spread very fast unless MASK MANDATES are kept in place, interstate & international travellers are quarantined for AT LEAST 2 to 4 weeks, sentinel testing in outbreak hotspots will be necessary with very good and fast forensic contact tracing and mandatory iso of contacts and exposed and people who test positive , and CCT BKR LKDNs will still be needed to keep Delta cases manageable.
Essentially , IT'"S VERY RISKY LIVING WITH DELTA.

BUT the stinger is AZ efficancy against Delta to keep pple out of hospital is much lower ~ 60%
Pfizer ~ 78%
Moderna ~ Pfizer

recalc to keep hospitals relatively free
AZ ,H ( avoid hospital ) = 148% IMPOSSIBLE !
Pfizer , H ( avoid hospital ) = 109% IMPOSSIBLE ! but better.
Gonna be a desaster if Australia and NSW follow the plan to open up at 80% of adults ( significantly less = 0.74 x 80 = 59.2% ) of Australia's population fully vaxxed. NOT WHERE NEAR HERD IMMUNITY .
Bare in mind << 1% of the Australian population has ever been exposed to Covid , let alone to Delta so unlike UK, USA, France, Germany etc , there is no big pool of people who have natural "immunity" to Covid / Delta that will bolster the herd immunity cumulated total.

 

[kingofnobbys]

28 AUGUST UPDATE
a SHOCKING day in the NSW DELTA WAVE .. YET ANOTHER RECORD SET FOR LOCAL CASES IN NSW & AUSTRALIA.

NSW recorded 1035 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 869 mystery cases ( 84% ) , all but 45 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 73 days for NSW = 17791.
2 more deaths.
NSW's Positivity = 0.8% today.

It's beyond a pail that the NSW Covid Cabinet chose NOT TO TIGHTEN the lockdowns in Greater Sydney to further reduce mixing / Delta spread in more metro LGAs , INSTEAD they decided to allow people to get married with small gatherings at their marriage service , AGAIN EXACT OPPOSITE of WHAT IS REQUIRED to bring this OUT OF CONTROL DELTA WAVE in many Greater Sydney LGA's to heal and start forcing the curve in the right direction.

NSW MAJOR OUTBREAKS

Today NSW's Delta Wave surpassed the cumulative total of local cases for the same period of 73 days into the Wave that was set by Melbourne's 2nd Covid Wave 12 months ago almost to the day.

Major differences between Melbourne's 2nd Covid Wave & NSW's Delta Wave
1) Melbourne was fighting SARS-CoV-2 , Ro ~ 5.8 , NSW & Sydney & HNE & WNSW are fighting Delta , Ro ~ 14.
2) Victoria went to Stage 4 HARD lockdown much earlier than NSW did.
3) Victoria's curve peaked @ ~ day 55 , NSW's curve has not yet peaked and shows no sign of doing so @ day 73.
4) Victoria's cases numbers were dropping and had fallen to ~200/day by day 73 , NSW's case numbers rate increase has actually increased ( there has been a step change & increased rampup since the "freedom" riot in Sydney 1 week ago ) .


REGIONAL NSW

HNE

Lambton is only 4km away. Too close.

WNSW
Wilcannia township has 10% Delta positivity, which is great concern as many WNSW aboriginal communities are still clan based and as aboriginals have many covid comorbidities such as heart, kidney, and lung issues along with high levels of diabetes. And many are social security dependent and the region is very sparsely served by health clinics and there are very long distances involved to reach high quality hospital care ( usually involves RFDS doing an emergency airlift or medivac flight , often from makeshift runways ( ie a dirt road, or sports field or a treeless are on a sheep or cattle station).

Victoria recorded 64 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 15 mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 880.
Victoria's Positivity = 0.12% today.

Regional Victoria
Shepparton LGA Delta cluster has grown overnight to 85 .

ACT recorded 26 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 6 mystery are cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 230.
ACT's positivity = 0.76% today.

QLD, SA, NT, TAS, WA all recorded OO o/night.

NZ recorded 82 new LOCAL Delta cases overnight, total for NZ's latest Delta outbreak = 429.
ALL in Auckland.
NZ positivity = 0.15% total.

MODELLING

LATEST Projection 3 Error = -1.37% ==> projection 3 is 244 low on the cumulative total of 17791.

 

[kingofnobbys]

28 AUGUST UPDATE

Everyone here thought yesterday was a SHOCKING day in the NSW DELTA WAVE .. TODAY WAS MUCH WORSE - YET ANOTHER RECORD SET FOR LOCAL CASES IN NSW & AUSTRALIA.

NSW recorded a surge of near 200 to 1218 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , and surge in mystery cases of just under 200 to 1057 mystery cases ( 87% ) , all but 34 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 74 days for NSW has topped 19k at 19009.
6 more deaths.

AGAIN Gladys Berejiklian chose NOT TO TIGHTEN the lockdowns in Greater Sydney to further reduce mixing / Delta spread in more metro LGAs , INSTEAD she told us not to focus on the case numbers , NSW will relax the lockdown WHEN 70% of ELIGIBLE ADULTS (that +16s now and REALLY 50% of the population is fully vaxed .
AGAIN EXACT OPPOSITE of WHAT IS REQUIRED to bring this OUT OF CONTROL DELTA WAVE in many Greater Sydney LGA's to heal and start forcing the curve in the right direction.

Premiers of Victoria, WA , SA , QLD, and head ministers of ACT & NT all up in arms over her govt's incompetence and are telling her their borders WILL remain closed to NSW until NSW crushes the Delta Wave. NZ PM has said the same.

NSW REGIONAL OUTBREAKS

ILLAWARRA LGA case number surged by 13 Delta cases overnight to 1218 , raising real concerns in the Illawarra region .

HNE

Worrying as we have family in Raymond Terrace and in Adamstown & Birmingham Gardens.

WNSW

One of my nephews works and lives in Nyngan with is wife and kiddies. Told me today on the phone the town is in shock ( no one there thought Delta would every pop up there ).

Victoria recorded a surge ( people are supposed to be isolation have been out and about (breaching) and the effect of the superspreading in the two "freedom" covidiot riots are now hiting with a vengeance , up by 44% to 92 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 31 mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 972.

Regional Victoria
Shepparton LGA Delta cluster has grown overnight by 9 to 144 local cases of Delta.
Delta has reached Traralgon LGA in the Gippsland Region of SE Victoria.

Victoria's Stage 4 LOCKDOWN has been extended.

ACT recorded 13 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , zero mystery cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 251.

ACT's Stage 4 Lockdown has been extended.

QLD recorded 1 new LOCAL case of Delta o/night , zero mystery cases , total in QLD's latest outbreak = 138.

SA is on alert for DELTA as the two NSW long haul road train drivers who were detected in WA also travelled through SA twice and stopped at several places in SA in the period they were infection.

Communities in Port Augusta and Ceduna are on alert, and some in isolation, after 2 New South Wales truck drivers who’d travelled through regional SA this week tested positive to COVID-19.
SA Health has identified 15 people across 4 exposure sites, who’ll need to quarantine with their households – and the number is expected to rise.

SA recorded OO o/night.

NT, TAS, WA all recorded OO o/night.

NZ recorded 83 new LOCAL Delta cases overnight, total for NZ's latest Delta outbreak = 511.
ALL but 1 in Auckland.
NZ has extended their Stage 4 Lockdown on the Nth Island for 2 weeks , the Sth Island moves to Stage 3 Lockdown.

MODELLING

ANALYSIS OF NSW WAVE.
Over the last 10 days the exponential slope of the NSW Curve has been 1.07 ==> T(2x) ~11days.

NSW cumulated total local Delta cases on Day74 similar to Melbourne's 2nd Wave total local covid cases on their Day86 , at this point Melbourne's case numbers/day had peaked ( ~ Day 55 ) and the daily case number had dropped to < 200 / day by their Day74..
On Victoria's Day86 the cases/day was 112. A COLOSSAL DIFFERENCE to NSW's today of 1218.

NSW is now in UNCHARTED TERRITORY as the DELTA WAVE is going to be HUGE and VERY COSTLY in lives from here on and will take much longer to decline than Melbourne's 2nd Wave did.
Essentially Greater Sydney is TARFUed.

Projection 3 Error = -1.61% ==> error ~ under real curve by 306.

 

[kingofnobbys]

30 AUGUST UPDATE.

Another big jump in daily local Delta cases numbers in Greater Sydney & WNSW .

SHOCKING day in the NSW DELTA WAVE AGAIN.. TODAY WAS MUCH WORSE - YET ANOTHER RECORD SET FOR LOCAL CASES IN NSW & AUSTRALIA.

NSW recorded a surge of near 1275 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , and surge in mystery cases 1145 mystery cases ( 8% ) , all but 54 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 75 days for NSW has topped 20k at 20213.
4 more deaths.

My son lives and works in Blacktown LGA , Australia's HOTTEST HOTSPOT LGA , I've advised him to go and get vaxed ASAP ( Pfizer if he can it w/out going to a Mass Vax Hub or anywhere crowded , AZ if he can't , for him , the positivity in Blacktown LGA @ 0.6% maked being unvaxxed more risky than getting AZ if that's all he can get NOW. I've also advised him to either double mask using surgical masks or to wear an N95 when getting his 1st & then later his 2nd jabs.
Tells me he's been home iso - ing and only going outside for a short walk a few times a week and is avoiding everyone .



POSITIVITIES in STATES w/ Delta outbreaks

VAX ROLLOUTS in SATES w/ Delta outbreaks

NSW regional

ILLAWARRA LGA case number surged AGAIN by 13 Delta cases overnight to 1231 .

HNE

Whitebridge is only 10mins drive from here.

WNSW
Surged by 51 Delta cases overnkght.
https://i.postimg.cc/xjy71jqr/30august-NSW-POSITIVITY.png

Victoria recorded 72 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 21 mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 1045.

Taralgon LGA in the Gippsland regions is on alert.

ACT recorded 12 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 6 mystery cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 263.


QLD recorded 1 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 0 mystery cases , total in QLD's latest outbreak = 138.

WA, SA, NT recorded no new local Delta cases over night.

HOSPITALISATION

NZ recorded 55 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night ALL IN AUCKLAND & linked to a church , total in NZ's latest outbreak = 566..

MODELLING

 

[kingofnobbys]

31 AUGUST

As if the situation with the Delta wave in NSW , Victoria & ACT wasn't already the stuff of nightmares , the fringe covidiot antivaxxer groups decided to have "freedom" and antivaxxer protests ( supposedly about being vaxed being mandated in key industries and jobs and many major companies ) , and there were riots in numerous cities and towns ( mostly focused around town halls and parliament buildings ) in QLD, NSW, ACT, SA, and Victoria, the largest in Melbourne , Brisbane and Sydney turning violent with several cops injured. Great more superspread riots , these fools are not helping and making Delta spread even quicker ( the exponential curve for the NSW curve has a higher exponential value (slope) now .

Today also for the first time this year covid deaths occurred in Victoria , nor were these two people elderly , one even died in their home .
This along with 4 deaths in NSW , one who was an man in WNSW .
National death toll today from Delta is 5.

NSW
NSW recorded a surge of near 1164 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , and surge in mystery cases ALL mystery cases , all but 56 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 76 days for NSW has reached 21463 LOCAL DELTA CASES.
4 more deaths.

NSW has cut intl repats by half to enable medical staff in quarantine hotels to be transferred to the public hospital system , huge influx of seriously and critically Delta ill people are expected in Sydney especially in the next 4 to 6 weeks.

People in WNSW are very alarmed by the situation in some major regional towns and the appalling lack of ICU beds and ventilators in WNSW ( Wilcannia hospital ONLY ONE ventilator on hand !! ). This appallingly dangerous situation is directly on NSW Health Minister Hazzard who was told about this situation in the WNSW Health District and chose to ignore all recommendations to prepare for covid outbreak in the WNSW region where there is a very large tribal aboriginal community who are extra vulnerably to covid.


DATA

GREATER SYDNEY

REGIONAL NSW

HNE

WNSW

Victoria recorded 76 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 31 mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 1121.
And 2 Delta deaths in Melbourne.
The case numbers appear to be stabilizing in Melbourne , but are new covid alerts and 9 new delta cases in REGIONAL VIC Goulburn Valley in Shepparton.

The Victorian Premier says health authorities will make announcements tomorrow about a plan that includes what restrictions can be eased in the state once certain case number thresholds are reached.

ACT recorded 13 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 6 mystery cases again, total in ACT's latest outbreak = 276.
ACT has extended their Stage 4 lockdown for 2 more weeks.

SA had another OO day and has reopened borders to Katherine in NT and SEQLD .

Queensland , WA and NT all had OO days.

Tasmania had another OO day and has accepted a modest increase in intl repat flights ( from UK ) for hotel quarantine.

MODELLING

ANALYSIS

Projection 3 is still good.

NSW curve has steepened ==> curve model for NSW
y (t) = B x slope^t

ref :

where
y(t) is cumulative local delta case numbers (t)
B = 10^b = the exponential constant
a = log10( slope )
and
slope = 10^a , a has increased ==> slope has increased ( spreading faster ) & doubling time T(2x) = log10(2)/ a has dropped exponentially.


NZ
NZ recorded 50 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night ALL IN AUCKLAND , 49 were mystery cases, total in NZ's latest outbreak = 651.

New Zealand's COVID numbers have dropped again to the lowest number in six days.

Director General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said on Tuesday that 49 cases had been recorded the previous day, all in Auckland, bringing the total number of infections in this outbreak to 612.

Bloomfield said most importantly, the "reproduction rate is remaining under 1, which means cases should continue to decline and we're breaking the train of transmission".

But he said 6 cases were under the age of one, reinforcing the need to isolate and remain vigilant.

He said 33 people were in hospital, including 8 in ICU. Two were on ventilators, Bloomfield said. The youngest person in hospital was 18, while two-thirds of all cases were under 30.

The areas south of Auckland will go to a LEVEL 3 lockdown for a week

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/national/nz-s-covid-numbers-drop-northland-region-out-of-lockdown-on-thursday/ar-AANV1lw?ocid=msedgntp

NZ has "ring fenced" Auckland.
Northland region out of lockdown on Thursday

 

[kingofnobbys]

1 September update .

NSW hit 100 deaths caused by Delta in this Wave today with 4 more deaths. (Makes NSW's total covid deaths in the entire pandemic 154 .)

NSW recorded 1106 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , ALL mystery cases , all but 31 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 77 days for NSW has reached 22575 LOCAL DELTA CASES.

In Greater Sydney , new Covid Wards are being setup in preparation for the expected tsunami of Delta cases requiring hospital treatment in the Greater Sydney hotspot LGAs and Greater Sydney + Blue Mountains + Illawarra + Central Coast LGAs in the next 6 weeks , the rate of spread has increased ( a higher R value or slope in the epidemiological semi log curve ) <== though NSW Health Min Hazzard and NSW Premier Berejiklian haven't / wont admit.
It's very clear Delta is out of control in Greater Sydney & WNSW and things are heading in the wrong direction with the Delta Wave case numbers & hospitalisations as clearly indicated by the fact that mystery cases have been > 80% of new local cases since the 14th August ==> contact tracers in NSW are overwhelmed and it's taking longer to trace each case so there is huge backlog. Been 100% last 2 days.
This has dire consequences as
1) it takes longer for contacts to be identified and if infected they are left in circulation longer while unaware they were exposed and they infect secondary cases who infect more people for the same reasons
2) the local communities find out later they should about local venue and bus and train and ferry route and flight alerts so there is too long a lag in making people aware they have likely been exposed so they remain oblivious and in the community longer before going into self iso or getting tested , added to the feedback loop that is driving the unstable Delta wave case numbers to ever higher R numbers.

DATA

REGIONAL NSW

HNE

6 new local Delta case overnight in HNE , total for my region is now 191 cases.

Cases in the community in Whitebridge, Belmont, Swansea Heads, and Catherine Hill Bay ( a tiny little town just S of Swansea ), in Jesmond (a mystery case !) are all very concerning as all way too close to home and extended family members to be comfortable.

WNSW
29 new local Delta case overnight in WNSW , total for WNSW region is now 644 cases.
A door2door vaxx blitz is underway in the WNSW.

Victoria recorded 120 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 56 mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 1241.
2 Delta deaths in Melbourne.
Their lockdown has been extended until 23 September.
When Greater Melbourne reaches 70% eligible adults fully vaxed they can look forward to

There is fear that Victoria will not be able to achieve ZEROCOVID this time.

ACT recorded 23 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 9 mystery cases again, total in ACT's latest outbreak = 299.

OO days in QLD, TAS, SA, NT and WA , only cased recorded in these states were already in quarantine and all a repats from o/seas.

NZ recorded 75 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night ALL BUT ONE in Auckland , the other was in Wellington , 16 were mystery cases, total ACTIVE delta cases in NZ's latest outbreak = 687.

NZ covid demographics

NZ hospitalisation comparison.

MODELLING'

ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

The likelihood of NSW seeing over 4000 new local Delta cases / day is terrifying , expert epidemiologists are projecting similar daily daily case loads in the same period and this has alarmed hospital and ICU nurses, ambulance crews , GPs and intensive care clinicians, and the aged care , NDIS workers and specialists, and the aboriginal community , as well all other state CHOs , state premiers and their health ministers.

Yet still ScoMo and Berejiklian and Hazzard are pushing the "must live with Delta" , "DeltaZero is impossible" , " daily case number are not important" propaganda (which flies against the advise of the experts) , AND the only numbers that matter (to them) are vax rates & ICU rates and "WE" must reopen BEFORE XMAS to interstate and international travel DESPITE the risks because it is the goal for 70% of ELIGIBLE ( = 16 yo + ) Australians will at least have had 1 vax jab by Xmas.
Things WILL GO VERY BAD if this happens.

 

[kingofnobbys]

2 SEPT UPDATE, HORRID DAY IN NSW and Australia .

Australia recorded 1478 new Covid cases overnight , our highest ever recorded.
Highest before this Delta Wave was 715 cases overnight

NSW recorded 1288 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 1151 were mystery cases , all but 27 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 78 days for NSW has reached 23585 LOCAL DELTA CASES.
NSW recorded 7 Delta deaths overnight ==> death toll for the NSW Delta Wave to 107.

DATA

HNE recorded 4 new local delta cases overnight, 3 of the 4 were infectious in the community (wild).

The most concerning cases for my family & friends are those "wild" cases in Shoal Bay and Salamander Bay ( Pt Stephens LGA ) , in Swansea Heads ( Lk Macquarie LGA ).
3 of the 4 were infectious in the community (wild).

WNSW recorded 23 new local delta cases overnight , all infectious in the community.

A door2door vaxx rollout campaign is underway in the remote WNSW townships and settlements ( using AZ vaccine ) , and a large fleet of campervans has been deployed to Dubbo and other hotspot communities to assist those who are living in very crowded multigenerational situations in public housing to be able self quarantine in a hope this will help slow the spread in the typical large overcrowded household typical of these townships and settlements.

ALERTS IN REGIONAL NSW
NWNSW
The border town of Goondiwindi's residents are having a testing blitz after Delta +ve long haul truck driver crossed the NSW - QLD border and stopped in town.

NSW Far South East
Residents of Bega and Cooma are on Covid Alert and are having a testing blitz after Covid-19 fragments have been detected in Bega's sewage & and 3rd detection in Cooma's sewage.

NSW Illawarra Region
Illawarra has hit a record 22 new local delta cases overnight, surpassing the previous high of 13 cases on Sunday.
The Illawarra Shoalhaven Local Health District (ISLHD) has confirmed 15 of the new cases live in Wollongong while 7 are Shellharbour residents.
The latest cases mean the Illawarra has recorded more than 100 new Delta infections since the start of the Delta Wave with a total of 111 cases.
ISLHD confirmed 11 of the new cases were linked to "known exposures or family clusters", while the remaining cases are under investigation (mystery cases)..

Victoria recorded a surge of 178 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 93 mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 1417.
0 Delta deaths in Melbourne.

ACT recorded 12 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 6 mystery cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 311.

QLD recorded 1 new LOCAL case of Delta o/night , 0 mystery cases , total in QLD's latest outbreak = 139.
This new outbreak in Gold Coast LGA was by another long haul interstate truck driver & is under investigation. The truck driver is from Windaroo , travelled from Sydney and is believed to have been infectious in the community from August 28 until September 1.
Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said he lives on the Gold Coast but had travelled from Sydney and is currently back in New South Wales.
A school on the Gold Coast is also closed over a COVID scare after a family of 5 has been forced into hotel quarantine who snuck across the NSW - QLD , through remote far west NSW enroute to and from Melbourne border using very remote 4x4 roads from the Gold Coast, the school 2 of their children attend has been closed for COVIDCLEANING. .

SA
Mobile Covid testing clinics have been rigged up to test incoming interstate truck and courier drivers from NSW , ACT, and Victoria , while truck drivers are turning away at SA's border over changes to SA's Health Department travel direction.

TAS, SA, NT and WA , only cases recorded in these states were already in quarantine and all are repats from o/seas.

NZ recorded 49 new delta cases overnight , of these 16 in Wellington , the rest were residents of Auckland.
This brings NZ's August Delta Outbreak total local cases to 736.
PM Arden says NZ is still persuing CovidZERO as their goal as a nation.

NZ MODELLING

NSW & VIc and ACT MODELLING

ANALYSIS
No sign of NSW's curve flattening, if anything it's now assumed a steeper exponential curve.


VAX ROLLOUTS IN HOT SPOT STATES = NSW, VIC & ACT

Disturbing Data from Israel showing effect of waining AZ and Pfizer vaccine efficacy against Delta strain.

There are warning for Australia imbedded in this date
80% of 16yo+ fully vaxxed WILL NOT BE ADEQUATE protection against serious Delta illness , bare in mind Israel has had some very large covid outbreaks and so as percentage , exposed Israelis are magnitudes greater than in AU.
0.23% of Australians have natural covid immunity , so this will have negligible effect on the protective efficacy of the AU vaxx rollout which is focused heavily on AZ.

Israel has fully vaxxinated 59.8% of the adult population = 5.494 Million people in Israel fully vaxxed from it's 8.812 million

Israel has had 1.08 million covid cases . (12.3 % w/ natural covid immunity)

So Israeli "Herd" = 12.3 + 59.8 = 72.1 % with either natural immunituy or vaxx protection.

Hence Israel is imposing lockdowns and social distancing and mask mandates again despite the very high on an global scale level of national vaccination & they are now trying booster vaxx jabs to try to improve the efficacy of the vaccination rollout.

 

[kingofnobbys]

3 September Update. Day 79 .

Australia recorded 1682 new Covid cases overnight , our highest ever recorded.
A step change over all Australia overnight of 14% , and causally connected to the so called "freedom" riots and protests lots of towns and all over ALL eastern capitals and cities last Saturday & Sunday , these were Delta superspreading events.

NSW saw a 18% step change today in local Delta cases detected overnight in NSW, to 1431 new local cases , bringing NSW's total to 25289.
There were 1250 mystery cases ( 87.4% ) .

This is causally connected to the so called "freedom" riots and protests lots of towns and all over Sydney last Saturday , as feared and expected these were Delta superspreading events.

NSW recorded our highest ever overnight covid death toll of 12 , all in Sydney.

REGIONAL NSW

HNE recorded 11 new local delta cases overnight, 7 infectious in the community (wild).

Cases in Salamander Bay , Hetherbrae , Swansea Heads, Nth Lambton, Whitebridge and Armidale are of concern to my extended family.


WNSW recorded 53 new local delta cases overnight , all infectious in the community.

Cases overnight in other NSW REGIONAL LGAs

Victoria recorded a step change of 17% to 208 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night ,this step change is causally connected to the so called "freedom" riots and protests lots of towns and all over ALL over Melbourne and in regionaland cities and towns last Saturday & Sunday , these were Delta superspreading events, 112 were mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 1625.
0 Delta deaths in Melbourne.

ACT recorded Victoria recorded a step change of 16% to 17 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 5 mystery cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 328.
Zero deaths.

QLD recorded 1 new LOCAL mystery case of Delta o/night , no deaths.
Total in ACT's latest outbreak = 140 .

TAS, SA, NT and WA all had OO days recorded, only cases recorded in these states were already in quarantine and all are repats from o/seas.

HOSPITALIZATION SNAPSHOTS

OVER FULL PANDEMIC THUS FAR

NZ recorded 28 new delta cases overnight , of these 1 was in Wellington , the rest were residents of Auckland.
This brings NZ's August Delta Outbreak total local cases to 764.

MODELLING

10 day moving slope for NSW curve = 1.07

Curve still very linear and not showing any evidence of peaking or flattening the epidemiological curve .

 

[kingofnobbys]

4 September Update. Day 80 .

Australia recorded 1760 new Covid cases overnight , our highest ever recorded.
A step change is now a ramp change over all Australia overnight of 11% TODAY , and causally connected to the so called "freedom" riots and protests lots of towns and all over ALL eastern capitals and cities last Saturday & Sunday , these were Delta superspreading events.

There were 4 deaths due to Delta in Australia overnight ( all in NSW , all in Sydney ).

NSW saw a 6% ramp change today in local Delta cases detected overnight in NSW, to a NEW ALL TIME HIGH of 1533 new local cases , bringing NSW's total to 226822.
This is causally connected to the so called "freedom" riots and protests lots of towns and all over Sydney last Saturday , as feared and expected these were Delta superspreading events.
There were 1358 mystery cases ( 88.6% ) .

NSW HEALTH & NSW ED are fast tracking graduations of new ambulance crewmen & paramedics in preparation for the expected colossal surge of very sick people suffering life threatening illness due to the expected growth the current DELTA WAVE in NSW into a DELTA TSUNAMI in NSW in the coming few months .
BUT are still not planning on moving Greater Sydney's HOTSPOTS to Stage 5 SUPER HARD LOCKDOWN , or VERY HARD RING FENCING these hotspot LGAs , or moving ALL Greater Sydney to a HARDENED version of Stage 4 LOCKDOWN including ring fencing Greater Sydney to keep Sydney's workers and people INSIDE Greater Sydney and to protect the nearby regional cities and the rest of NSW ( and Australia ). This should include nightly curfews .

Seems that Gladys and Brad Hazzard have decided to expose as many NSWelshmen as they can while PRETENDING they are mitigating Delta's spread ( with LITE / very leaky lockdowns ) in an attempt to perhaps achieve DELTA herd immunity in NSW while pushing the claim that NSW & Australia will VAX our ways out this impending DELTA TSUSAMI and we'll be seeing a nearly normal Xmas ( for those who are vaxxed ).
They are ignoring what very inconveniently is happening in countries who have tried this with Delta and are now finding they are in the midst of huge new DELTA WAVE , and MU is taking over ( which evades the vaccines ).
See problems in Israel

This is my suspicion and is only explanation that explains the inept and incompetent way NSW govt has handled this Delta Wave and the initial outbreak in Bondi.
THIS WILL NOT END WELL for NSW & Australia .

NSW recorded an overnight covid death toll of 4 , all in Sydney.

MAJOR CLUSTERS NEW CASES TODAY

REGIONAL OUTBREAKS IN NSW + ACT

HNE recorded 15 new local delta cases overnight, a 36% step change overnight, and 14 infectious in the community (wild).
Total for HNE is now 221.

Cases in Salamander Bay , Heatherbrae , Shoal Bay, Fingal Bay, Medowie, Clarence Town, Adamstown Hts , and Thornton are of concern to my extended family.
NSW Health have lost control of the Delta outbreak in the Port Stephens LGA.

Curve R values for HNE
Newcastle LGA Slope R = 1.01 .... here hoping this holds or goes to R < 1 .
Lake Macquarie LGA Slope R = 1.08
Maltland / Cessnock LGAs Slope R = 1.07
Port Stephens LGA Slope R has increased dramatically this week to 1.32 ==> Delta is spreading NSW Health have lost control in Port Stephens LGA.
I strongly suspect there 2 upswings in the Port Stephens curve over was 2 weeks are connected to the "freedom" covidiot protest in Sydney , and the more recent repeats last weekend.

The timing is very closely correlated :
Port Stephens R was 1.01 , then the 21 August mass protest in Sydney ==> R = 1.08 ,
then the 28 August protests all over NSW ==> R = 1.32.


WNSW recorded 38 new local delta cases overnight. Their total is now 758.

h

Curve slopes for WNSW LGA that are currently doing OK.
Orange = 1.07
Narromine = 1.07
Mudgee = 1.04
Walgette = 1.02


ILLAWARRA / SHOALHAVEN LGAs recorded 17 new local delta cases overnight. Bring these LGAs to 140. 16 cases were mystery "wild" cases.
Breakdown
Wollongong added 12 , of which 5 were "wild". I have family on my mum's side in Wollongong , this is concern.
Shellharbour added 3 , one was "wild"
Shoal Haven added 2 .

Victoria recorded 190 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 87 were mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 1815.
0 Delta deaths in Melbourne.

ACT recorded Victoria recorded a step change of 88% to 32 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 8 mystery cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 360.
Zero deaths.

QLD recorded another new LOCAL mystery case of Delta o/night , no deaths.
Total in ACT's latest outbreak = 141 . No deaths.
QLD has tightened the NSW - QLD border closure to ensure ensure all truck drivers are tested before crossing the border at the border checkpoints.
Is likely SE QLD will be going back to a Stage 4 CCT BKR Lockdown to crush the current school cluster in Logan LGA.

TAS, SA, NT and WA all had OO days recorded, only cases recorded in these states were already in quarantine and all are repats from o/seas.

NZ recorded 20 new delta cases overnight , ALL of these were residents of Auckland.
This brings NZ's August Delta Outbreak total local cases to 784.
NZ recorded their 1st covid death for this year overnight.

MODELLING

ERROR CALC REVISED = PROJECTED TOTAL - ACTUAL TOTAL
= err

% ERROR CALC REVISED = err / ACTUAL TOTAL

The linear projection with slope 1.08 has an err = + 2.71% ( is higher than actual )
and is projection 727 too high a total.

The curved projection (3) has an err = - 23.6% ( is hopeless low in projecting now ) .

 

[kingofnobbys]

5 SEPT = Day 81 in the NSW DELTA WAVE.

Dads' Day on NSW - QLD border in Coolangatta today .

even had the fairies showing up

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-05/qld-covid-families-separated-fathers-day/100435400

Australia recorded 1688 new Covid cases overnight , NO the wave HASN'T PEAKED..

NSW recorded 1485 new local cases , bringing NSW's total to 28327 in 81 days. A small wobble in RIGHT DIRECTION BUT NO - NOT SIGNS NSW has PEAKED.
There were 1371 mystery cases ( 92.3% ) <== contact tracing in NSW is clearly still overwhelmed.
There were 3 DELTA deathsin Australia overnight ( all in NSW , all in Sydney ).

REGIONAL OUTBREAKS IN NSW + ACT

HNE recorded 12 new local delta cases overnight, with 9 infectious in the community (wild).
Total for HNE is now 233.

Wild Delta cases in
Armidale LGA (1x) ,
Cessnock LGA (1x) ,
Maitland LGA (2x = 1x @ Thornton, 1x @ Metford )
Port Stephens LGA ( 2x = 1x @ Nelson Bay , 1x @ Shoal Bay )

The wild cases in Armidale , Cessnock , Thornton , Metford , Shoal Bay and Nelson Bay are of a concern to my extended family.

WNSW recorded 32 new local delta cases overnight. Their total is now 790 ( includes 2 unassigned local cases )..

The case in Carbonne LGA is a concern as I have family living in Molong ( cousin and her family ).

Central Coast LGA recorded 7 new local Delta cases overnight.

Illawarra & Shoalhaven LGAs recorded 11 new local Delta cases overnight. Total now = 151.

FarWNSW LGAs recorded 4 new local Delta cases overnight.

Victoria recorded 183 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 82 were mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 1998.
0 Delta deaths in Melbourne.

ACT recorded Victoria recorded 15 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 2 mystery cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 375.
Zero deaths.

QLD recorded another new case of Delta o/night. No mystery cases.
Total in ACT's latest outbreak = 142 .
No deaths.

TAS, SA, NT and WA all had OO days recorded, only cases recorded in these states were already in quarantine and all are repats from o/seas.

NZ recorded 20 new delta cases AGAIN overnight , ALL of these were residents of Auckland.
This brings NZ's August Delta Outbreak total local cases to 804.

MODELLING & PROJECTION
Modelling NSW Delta Wave,

Projection slope = 1.06

The linear projection with slope 1.06 has an err = + 3.44% ( is higher than actual )
and is projecting 975 too high a total.

 

[kingofnobbys]

6 SEPT = Day 82 in the NSW DELTA WAVE.

Australia recorded 1548 new Covid cases overnight & 6 deaths ( 5 in Greater Sydney , 1 in Western NSW
) , NO the wave HASN'T PEAKED..

NSW recorded 1281 new local cases , bringing NSW's total to 29588 in 82 days. A small wobble in RIGHT DIRECTION BUT NO - NOT SIGNS NSW has PEAKED.
There were 1167 mystery cases ( 91.6% ) <== contact tracing in NSW is clearly still overwhelmed.
There were 6 DELTA deaths in overnight ( all in NSW , 5 in Sydney ).

Major Outbreaks with new cases overnight

Premier Berejiklian says NSW Health have modelling that suggests NSW Delta daily cases will peak in next 2 to 3 weeks and will be around 3000 cases per day soon.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/how-will-hospitals-cope-when-nsw-covid-cases-hit-2-000-a-day-here-s-what-the-modelling-says/ar-AAO8NTh?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

NSW Health are planning for ICUs to be overwhelmed in October , critical ICU patients will end up being moved to regional and interstate ICUs when ICUs in Greater Sydney are overcapacity ( ~ 24Oct is the projection ).
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/sydney/hospitals-prepare-emergency-plans-for-icu-operations-to-reach-overwhelming-status/ar-AAO963t?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Unfortunately the modelling fails to take into account the superspreading in the "freedom" protests / riots just over a week ago and make no compensation for plateauing of vax rollout , and assumes too high an efficacy in keeping Delta patients out of hospital and then out of ICU .

REGIONAL NSW

HNE recorded 5 new local delta cases overnight, ALL infectious in the community (wild).
Total for HNE is now 238.

Wild Delta cases in
Lake Macquarie LGA = 3
( = 1 each in Cardiff, Macquarie Hills, Toronto) ,
Maitland LGA = 1 in Chisholm
Port Stephens LGA = 1 in Nelson Bay.

WNSW recorded 44 new local delta cases overnight and their 2nd Delta death ( also in the tribal community) . Their total is now 834 .

Dubbo added 35 delta cases overnight.
Burke added 6 delta cases overnight.
Narromine added 1 delta case overnight.
Orange added 2 delta cases overnight.

Other Regional NSW.
ISH recorded 21 new delta cases overnight
Central Coast recorded 8 new delta cases overnight.
FWNSW recorded 7 new delta cases overnight.
Sth Coast recorded 5 new delta cases overnight.

Victoria recorded 246 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 125 were mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 2244.
0 Delta deaths in Melbourne.

ACT recorded Victoria recorded 11 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 2 mystery cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 386.
Zero delta deaths.

QLD , TAS, SA, NT and WA all had OO days recorded, only cases recorded in these states were already in quarantine and all are repats from o/seas.

Hospitalisation situation

NZ recorded 24 new delta cases AGAIN overnight , ALL of these were residents of Auckland.
This brings NZ's August Delta Outbreak total local cases to 834.

Auckland to remain in Level 4 Hard Lockdown for at least another 2 weeks.
Rest of NZ moves from Level 3 to Level 2 restrictions.

MODELLING

Projection R = 1.06 projected high by 5.19% of NSW's total to 28327 = err = + 1535.

 

[kingofnobbys]

7 September = Day 83 in the NSW DELTA WAVE.

Australia recorded 1487 new Covid cases overnight & 8 deaths ( all in Greater Sydney ) , NO the wave HASN'T PEAKED..
Though some very excited news readers are claiming Delta has peaked and it's now on the way down.

NSW recorded 1220 new local cases , bringing NSW's total to 30808 in 83 days.
A small wobble in RIGHT DIRECTION BUT NO - NOT SIGNS NSW has PEAKED.
There were 1120 mystery cases ( 91.8% ) <== contact tracing in NSW is clearly still overwhelmed.
There were 8 DELTA deaths in overnight ( all in NSW in Sydney ).

ISH LGA added 14 cases.
Central Coast LGA added 22 cases.
Far WNSW LGA added 4 cases.
Sth Coast LGA added 2 cases.

Regional NSW

HNE recorded 7 new local delta cases overnight, ALL infectious in the community (wild). 2 mystery cases.
Total for HNE is now 245.
Zero covid deaths.

Lk Macquarie LGA added 2
1 in Cooranbong
1 in Hillsborough.
Pt Stephens LGA added 2 , both in Shoal Bay.
Maitland LGA added 1 , in Thornton.
Newcastle LGA added 1 , in Elenmore Vale.
Mid North Coast LGA added 1 , in Booral.
ALL infecious in community.

WNSW recorded 27 new local delta cases overnight , zero Delta death . Their total is now 861 .

Burke added 3
Dubbo added 18
Walgette added 1
Narromine added 3
Orange added 1
Brewarrina added 1

Victoria recorded 246 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night (AGAIN) , 156 were mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 2490.
0 Delta deaths in Melbourne.

ACT recorded Victoria recorded 19 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 6 mystery cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 405.
Zero delta deaths.

QLD , TAS, SA, NT and WA all had OO days recorded, only cases recorded in these states were already in quarantine and all are repats from o/seas.

NZ recorded 22 new delta cases overnight , ALL of these were residents of Auckland. One mystery case in Auckland.
This brings NZ's August Delta Outbreak total local cases to 850.

Modelling

Projections

err cf total is +7.36%

Wont take long to hit 3000 cases per day unless NSW Govt tightens the lockdown.

 

[kingofnobbys]

8 September = = Day 84 in the NSW DELTA WAVE.

Australia recorded 1721 new Covid cases overnight & 8 deaths , NO the wave HASN'T PEAKED..

NSW recorded 1480 new local cases , bringing NSW's total to 32288 in 84 days.
NO SIGNS NSW has PEAKED.
There were 1379 mystery cases ( 93.2% ) <== contact tracing in NSW is clearly still overwhelmed.
There were 8 DELTA deaths in overnight ( 7 in Greater Sydney , 1 in WNSW ) .

REGIONAL NSW

ISH LGA added 34 cases.
Central Coast LGA added 15 cases.
Far WNSW LGA added 7 cases.
Sth Coast LGA added 0 cases

HNE recorded 11 new local delta cases overnight, 5 infectious in the community (wild). 4 mystery cases.
Total for HNE is now 256.
Zero covid deaths.

Lk Macq LGA = 5
located in
Wyee Pt x4
Swansea Hds x1

Pt Stephens LGA = 3
located in
Salamanda Bay = 1
Shoal Bay = 1
Nelson Bay = 1

Nctle LGA = 2
located in
Shortland = 1
Tarro = 1

Dungog LGA = 1

WNSW recorded 27 new local delta cases AGAIN overnight , 1 Delta death . Their total is now 888 .

Locations of cases
Burke = 6
Dubbo = 17
Bathurst = 3
Walgette = 1

Victoria recorded 221 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night (AGAIN) , 123 were mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 2711.
0 Delta deaths in Melbourne.

ACT recorded Victoria recorded 20 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night ,11 mystery cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 425.
0 delta deaths.

QLD , TAS, SA, NT and WA all had OO days recorded, only cases recorded in these states were already in quarantine and all are repats from o/seas.

NZ recorded 16 new delta cases overnight , ALL of these were residents of Auckland. 0 mystery case in Auckland.
This brings NZ's August Delta Outbreak total local cases to 865.

MODELLING

Abandoned linear projection based on DAY67 to DAY77 y=0.0265x + 2.3201 , slope = 1.063
PROJECTIONS as no longer reliable .
New projection based on last 10 days ( DAY 74 to d84 y = 0.0231x + 2.5752 , slope = 1.055
gives a good fit to data in this period.