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Break Room (formerly Off Topic)
Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".
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[QUOTE="kingofnobbys, post: 1973142, member: 81934"] 4 September Update. Day 80 . Australia recorded 1760 new Covid cases overnight , our highest ever recorded. A step change is now a ramp change over all Australia overnight of 11% TODAY , and causally connected to the so called "freedom" riots and protests lots of towns and all over ALL eastern capitals and cities last Saturday & Sunday , these were Delta superspreading events. There were 4 deaths due to Delta in Australia overnight ( all in NSW , all in Sydney ). NSW saw a 6% ramp change today in local Delta cases detected overnight in NSW, to a NEW ALL TIME HIGH of 1533 new local cases , bringing NSW's total to 226822. This is causally connected to the so called "freedom" riots and protests lots of towns and all over Sydney last Saturday , as feared and expected these were Delta superspreading events. There were 1358 mystery cases ( 88.6% ) . NSW HEALTH & NSW ED are fast tracking graduations of new ambulance crewmen & paramedics in preparation for the expected colossal surge of very sick people suffering life threatening illness due to the expected growth the current DELTA WAVE in NSW into a DELTA TSUNAMI in NSW in the coming few months . BUT are still not planning on moving Greater Sydney's HOTSPOTS to Stage 5 SUPER HARD LOCKDOWN , or VERY HARD RING FENCING these hotspot LGAs , or moving ALL Greater Sydney to a HARDENED version of Stage 4 LOCKDOWN including ring fencing Greater Sydney to keep Sydney's workers and people INSIDE Greater Sydney and to protect the nearby regional cities and the rest of NSW ( and Australia ). This should include nightly curfews . Seems that Gladys and Brad Hazzard have decided to expose as many NSWelshmen as they can while PRETENDING they are mitigating Delta's spread ( with LITE / very leaky lockdowns ) in an attempt to perhaps achieve DELTA herd immunity in NSW while pushing the claim that NSW & Australia will VAX our ways out this impending DELTA TSUSAMI and we'll be seeing a nearly normal Xmas ( for those who are vaxxed ). They are ignoring what very inconveniently is happening in countries who have tried this with Delta and are now finding they are in the midst of huge new DELTA WAVE , and MU is taking over ( which evades the vaccines ). See problems in Israel [img]https://i.postimg.cc/J7vCTqK6/2-SEPT2021-ISRAELI-DELTA-WAVE-SINCE-SUCCESSFUL-VAX-ROLLOUT.png[/img] This is my suspicion and is only explanation that explains the inept and incompetent way NSW govt has handled this Delta Wave and the initial outbreak in Bondi. THIS WILL NOT END WELL for NSW & Australia . [img]https://i.postimg.cc/63QrkBjK/4-SEPT2021-CLUSTERS.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/Hsd1GK0x/4-SEPT2021-MYSTERY-cases.png[/img] NSW recorded an overnight covid death toll of 4 , all in Sydney. MAJOR CLUSTERS NEW CASES TODAY [img]https://i.postimg.cc/RhPRDNQw/4-SEPT2021-NSW-REGIONS.png[/img] REGIONAL OUTBREAKS IN NSW + ACT [img]https://i.postimg.cc/RFpdPWTK/4-SEPT2021-REGIONAL-NSW-MAJOR-DELTA-OUTBREAKS.png[/img] HNE recorded 15 new local delta cases overnight, a 36% step change overnight, and 14 infectious in the community (wild). Total for HNE is now 221. [img]https://i.postimg.cc/vBzYC6qq/4-SEPT2021-HNE-DAILY-CASES-SUMMARY.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/WzY21cP0/4-SEPT2021-HNE-DAILY-CASES-DETAILS.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/htfXxMyS/4-SEPT2021-HNE-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA-DATA-W-NEW-CASES.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/sxT2GZ5Q/4-SEPT2021-HNE-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA.png[/img] Cases in Salamander Bay , Heatherbrae , Shoal Bay, Fingal Bay, Medowie, Clarence Town, Adamstown Hts , and Thornton are of concern to my extended family. NSW Health have lost control of the Delta outbreak in the Port Stephens LGA. Curve R values for HNE [color=#FF0000]Newcastle LGA Slope R = 1.01 .... here hoping this holds or goes to R < 1 .[/color] Lake Macquarie LGA Slope R = 1.08 Maltland / Cessnock LGAs Slope R = 1.07 Port Stephens LGA Slope R has increased dramatically this week to 1.32 ==> Delta is spreading NSW Health have lost control in Port Stephens LGA. I strongly suspect there 2 upswings in the Port Stephens curve over was 2 weeks are connected to the "freedom" covidiot protest in Sydney , and the more recent repeats last weekend. The timing is very closely correlated : Port Stephens R was 1.01 , then the 21 August mass protest in Sydney ==> R = 1.08 , then the 28 August protests all over NSW ==> R = 1.32. WNSW recorded 38 new local delta cases overnight. Their total is now 758. [img]https://i.postimg.cc/mrFfQFWz/4-SEPT2021-western-nsw-cases.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/MTpQXxQG/4-SEPT2021-WNSW-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA-DATA-WITH-NEW-CASES-1.png[/img] h[img]ttps://i.postimg.cc/GpkW9n16/4-SEPT2021-WNSW-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA-DATA-WITH-NEW-CASES-2.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/CMvWR4WM/4-SEPT2021-WNSW-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA-DATA-WITH-NEW-CASES-3.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/gkydnhqg/4-SEPT2021-WNSW-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA-CHART1.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/Y06cLcgv/4-SEPT2021-WNSW-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA-CHART2.png[/img] Curve slopes for WNSW LGA that are currently doing OK. Orange = 1.07 Narromine = 1.07 Mudgee = 1.04 Walgette = 1.02 ILLAWARRA / SHOALHAVEN LGAs recorded 17 new local delta cases overnight. Bring these LGAs to 140. 16 cases were mystery "wild" cases. Breakdown Wollongong added 12 , of which 5 were "wild". I have family on my mum's side in Wollongong , this is concern. Shellharbour added 3 , one was "wild" Shoal Haven added 2 . Victoria recorded 190 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 87 were mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 1815. 0 Delta deaths in Melbourne. [img]https://i.postimg.cc/RV7CKKd3/4-SEPT2021-VIC-CLUSTERS.png[/img] ACT recorded Victoria recorded a step change of 88% to 32 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 8 mystery cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 360. Zero deaths. QLD recorded another new LOCAL mystery case of Delta o/night , no deaths. Total in ACT's latest outbreak = 141 . No deaths. QLD has tightened the NSW - QLD border closure to ensure ensure all truck drivers are tested before crossing the border at the border checkpoints. Is likely SE QLD will be going back to a Stage 4 CCT BKR Lockdown to crush the current school cluster in Logan LGA. TAS, SA, NT and WA all had OO days recorded, only cases recorded in these states were already in quarantine and all are repats from o/seas. [img]https://i.postimg.cc/RVzhjzLy/3-SEPT2021-DAYS-SINCE-LAST-LOCAL-CASE.png[/img] NZ recorded 20 new delta cases overnight , ALL of these were residents of Auckland. This brings NZ's August Delta Outbreak total local cases to 784. NZ recorded their 1st covid death for this year overnight. [img]https://i.postimg.cc/XYmTznwy/4-SEPT2021-NZ.png[/img] MODELLING [img]https://i.postimg.cc/HsLRWrzy/4-SEPT2021-MODELLING.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/g0vLwksV/screenshot-535.png[/img] ERROR CALC REVISED = PROJECTED TOTAL - ACTUAL TOTAL = err % ERROR CALC REVISED = err / ACTUAL TOTAL The linear projection with slope 1.08 has an err = + 2.71% ( is higher than actual ) and is projection 727 too high a total. The curved projection (3) has an err = - 23.6% ( is hopeless low in projecting now ) . [/QUOTE]
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Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".
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