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Break Room (formerly Off Topic)
Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".
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[QUOTE="kingofnobbys, post: 1972834, member: 81934"] 27 August , a horrible day in the NSW DELTA WAVE .. NSW recorded 882 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 773 mystery cases ( 87.6% ) , all but 42 were in Greater Sydney . Total in 72 days for NSW = 16756. 2 more deaths. Data [img]https://i.postimg.cc/Wb4y7MVW/27-AUGUST2021-CLUSTERS.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/3NfnqchL/27-AUGUST2021-INFECTIOUS-IN-COMMUNITY-SOME-OF-TIME.png[/img] Regional NSW [img]https://i.postimg.cc/SKZdRP2m/27-AUGUST2021-REGIONAL-NSW-MAJOR-DELTA-OUTBREAKS.png[/img] HNE [img]https://i.postimg.cc/W1YqkcnY/27-AUGUST2021-HNE-DAILY-CASES.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/gknW09x2/27-AUGUST2021-HNE-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA-DATA.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/fbspm1RX/27-AUGUST2021-HNE-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA.png[/img] WNSW [img]https://i.postimg.cc/htL3DM1G/27august2021-western-nsw-cases-a.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/7bvmDTC7/27-AUGUST2021-WNSW-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA-DATA-P1.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/Bn3fBjhX/27-AUGUST2021-WNSW-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA-DATA-P2.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/0NWgvc9w/27-AUGUST2021-WNSW-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA-DATA-P3.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/Jzxv3PD2/27-AUGUST2021-WNSW-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA-DATA-P4.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/cJ69RZNv/27-AUGUST2021-WNSW-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA.png[/img] Victoria recorded 79 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 26 mystery cases , total in Victoria's latest outbreak = 816. Regional Victoria Shepparton LGA Delta cluster has grown overnight to 79 . 1/3 of everyone who lives in Shepparton is in mandatory home iso. The ADF have deployed 80 troops to assist the thousands of locals who are in mandatory home isolation , will providing hampers and assisting with iso testing , and assisting with essential resupply runs ( food, essential consumeables, medicines etc ). [img]https://i.postimg.cc/66DF08HC/27august2021-active-clusters-in-victorian-delta-outbreak.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/xT3gz8Bf/27august2021-active-clusters-in-victorian-delta-outbreak-new.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/RVdQ08nq/27august2021-active-clusters-in-victorian-delta-outbreak-key.png[/img] ACT recorded 21 new LOCAL cases of Delta o/night , 6 mystery are cases , total in ACT's latest outbreak = 212. QLD recorded OO o/night , 11 SEQLD LGAs have now moved STAGE 3 LOCKDOWN from STAGE 4 , so queenslanders in SEQLD are now enjoying the same freedoms everyone else on QLD have only THE MASK MANDATE remains in force. [img]HTtps://i.postimg.cc/4ygfjWfT/27-AUGUST2021-SEQ-TO-STAGE-3-PT1.png[/img] WA has found 2 long haul truckdrivers from NSW have tested positive for Delta , fortunately they slept and ate in the truck's cab enroute from NSW through VIC and SA to WA and are considered low risk , they are now in mandatory quarantine. SA, TAS, NT & WA all recorded 00s . NZ recorded 70 new LOCAL Delta cases overnight, total for NZ's latest Delta outbreak = 347. ALL in Auckland. NZ's STAGE 4 LOCKDOWN has been extended. MODELLING [img]https://i.postimg.cc/ZnK1N76T/27-AUGUST2021-MODELLING.png[/img] Projection 3 error = -1.21% ( of 16756 ) = low by 352. NSW Delta Wave Curve is still looking exponential , has transitioned to stepped exponential curve , slope ~ 1.08 and will overtake Melbourne's 2nd Wave trajectory in next day or so. Unlike Melbourne's 2nd Wave, the curve has neither peaked yet , nor is it showing any indication of flattening, essential Greater Sydney's Delta Wave and the linked outbreaks in WNSW are out of control still BECAUSE the NSW Premier & Health Min left it too long to lockdown hard and Delta is now deeply embedded in MOST of W, NW, SW , Central Syd and clusters are growing in Illawarra, Nthn Beaches and Eastern Beaches & in the Central Coast. A comment on ScoMo & Premier Berejiklian plan to open up Australia and NSW @ 80% (ADULTS) fully vaxed . To avoid very severe Delta illness the following calc reveals Ro|wild = 10 - 14. Assume this takes into acct effect of Stage 4 LKDN (essentially 1/2 the unrestd spread rate). Call Ro|LD = 7 take Ho Eqn & adjust V. V = vax efficacy ~ 90% H=Ho/V = 6/( 7x0.9) = 95% ... ==> 95% of ALL Australians will need to be fully vaxxed = A VERY TALL ORDER. And to hope Delta can be treated like a bad flu is a fool's folly. People will still get sick enough to require a hospital stay ==> Delta will spread very fast unless MASK MANDATES are kept in place, interstate & international travellers are quarantined for AT LEAST 2 to 4 weeks, sentinel testing in outbreak hotspots will be necessary with very good and fast forensic contact tracing and mandatory iso of contacts and exposed and people who test positive , and CCT BKR LKDNs will still be needed to keep Delta cases manageable. Essentially , IT'"S VERY RISKY LIVING WITH DELTA. BUT the stinger is AZ efficancy against Delta to keep pple out of hospital is much lower ~ 60% Pfizer ~ 78% Moderna ~ Pfizer recalc to keep hospitals relatively free AZ ,H ( avoid hospital ) = 148% IMPOSSIBLE ! Pfizer , H ( avoid hospital ) = 109% IMPOSSIBLE ! but better. Gonna be a desaster if Australia and NSW follow the plan to open up at 80% of adults ( significantly less = 0.74 x 80 = 59.2% ) of Australia's population fully vaxxed. NOT WHERE NEAR HERD IMMUNITY . Bare in mind << 1% of the Australian population has ever been exposed to Covid , let alone to Delta so unlike UK, USA, France, Germany etc , there is no big pool of people who have natural "immunity" to Covid / Delta that will bolster the herd immunity cumulated total. [/QUOTE]
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