Home
Care Sheet
Visitor Photos
Product Selection Guides
Bearded Dragon Care Q&A
Forums
New posts
Search forums
Resources
Latest reviews
Search resources
Bearded Dragon Care Q&A
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
What's new
New posts
New media
New media comments
New resources
New profile posts
Latest activity
Members
Current visitors
New profile posts
Search profile posts
Help
Website Help Guides
Contact Us
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Forums
Website & Community
Break Room (formerly Off Topic)
Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
[QUOTE="kingofnobbys, post: 1972411, member: 81934"] 19 August Update HORRIBLE DAY for NSW. Recorded 633 new local Delta cases overnight , w/ 559 active in community and not isolating :( This is NSW's worst day so far in the pandemic, and Australia's 3rd worst day and the highest daily case numbers since 5 August 2020 ( the worst day of the Melbourne 2nd Wave ). NSW's Delta Wave total has reached 9382 cases since mid June. Yet no plans to tighten up the current LITE ( STAGE 3) LOCKDOWN V5 to a FULL STAGE 4 or even STAGE 5 SUPERHARD LOCKDOWN despite there being no indications that the NSW epidemiological curve is flattening to any real extent , the fact that contact tracing is obviously overwhelmed ,the restrictions are not strong enough to curtail spread of Delta in the community and there are way too many people moving about and ignoring the health orders. In Victoria 24 new delta cases were detected overnight, with 4 not isolating mystery cases. Victorian outbreak total is 254. In ACT 22 new delta cases were detected overnight, all in iso. ACT's outbreak total is 67. [img]https://i.postimg.cc/HWtDz7P4/18-AUGUST2021-CLUSTERS.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/KvnQXdMn/18-AUGUST2021-INFECTIOUS-IN-COMMUNITY-SOME-OF-TIME.png[/img] In the regions HNE recorded 15 new Delta cases overnight bringing the local outbreak to 145 cases. WNSW recorded 23 new Delta cases overnight bringing the local outbreak to 131 cases. [img]https://i.postimg.cc/YC7Tc2Gf/18-AUGUST2021-REGIONAL-NSW-MAJOR-DELTA-OUTBREAKS.png[/img] In HNE region (my local area) Newcastle LGA recorded 10 new Delta cases , brings the cluster to 59 cases'. Lake Macquarie LGA recorded 3 new Delta cases , brings our local cluster to 40 cases. Maitland & Cessnock LGAs recorded 2 new caes ( Maitland LGA ) , brings the cluster to 33 cases. Port Stephens LGA recorded zero cases overnight. Epidemiological curves for HNE [img]https://i.postimg.cc/HnHbYNQK/18-AUGUST2021-HNE-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-CURVES-BY-LGA.png[/img] In WNSW region [img]https://i.postimg.cc/xjtXNqYq/18-AUGUST-WESTERN-NSW-CASES.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/3NRJFC7N/18-AUGUST-WESTERN-NSW-CASES.png[/img] Modelling performance [img]https://i.postimg.cc/7Z2KBFZ8/184-AUGUST2021-MODELLING.png[/img] Projection 1 ( slope 1.083 ) Err = +4.04% of the total = +379 Projection 2 ( transposed curved section of Melb 2nd Wave's 2nd order poly curve fit ) Err = -2.46% of the total = -231 Projection 3 ( fine tuned 2nd order poly curve fit on NSW data ) Err = +0.37% of the total = +35 [img]https://i.postimg.cc/MpPH3pdX/screenshot-427.png[/img] Pretty good modelling with an error in an model's projections cf real world data inside +/- 2% of FSD ( FSD = full scale deflection ) in attempts to model a process. In an engineering and scientific context modelling error under 1% is regarded as precision modelling and indicates excellent calibration. [/QUOTE]
Verification
Post reply
Forums
Website & Community
Break Room (formerly Off Topic)
Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".
Top
Bottom