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Break Room (formerly Off Topic)
Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".
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[QUOTE="kingofnobbys, post: 1972153, member: 81934"] 14 AUGUST = NSW's WORSE DAY SINCE Cov19 arrived in Australia. 466 new local Delta cases in NSW overnight and 4 more deaths ( not all old , not all with comorbs ) . This brings the cumulated total of Delta Cases in NSW since the start of this 3rd Wave just 7 weeks ago from a SINGLE QUARANTINE worker ( intl aircrew transport "limo" driver who was unvaxxed and failed to maskup ) to 7404 cases. The slope of the curve remains stubbornly high at ~ 1.08 with little evidence of the curve flattening. The doubling period for NSW at this time is ~9.3 days. NSW Govt is blinkered on vaxxing their way out this Delta Wave using mostly AZ vax. IMO because AZ is so poor at protecting from severe Delta illness ( --> covid ward ) , and because the Ro for Delta is way up over Ro ~ 10 or higher , and Ho = ( Ro - 1 ) / [Ro . Eff . U] Eff = efficacy U is uptake , likely to stall way below the target of 70% of people in NSW > 16 yo ( U closer to 0.5 ) easy to see this a tall order. Less than 25% of the eligible adult ( 16yo+ ) population in NSW is FULLY VAXXED , mostly with AZ.. Neighbours one house removed Sth are in mandatory home isolation for 2 weeks after wife was exposed in her work as a disability care worker (with people who have metal illnesses and developed flu symptom last weekend on her OFF days , tested negative on Monday but not allowed to leave her home for 2 weeks from report to Health Dept , despite being fully vaxed with Pfizer at work a few months ago) , and on Monday her husband was exposed at work by walk-in who came into the postoffice where he works maskless who has since ( yesterday tested positive for covid , a rogue traveller from Sydney ) , so her two weeks in mandatory home iso has had to reset and she is not coming out of iso with her husband for 13 days irrespective of their covid test results. Cops check by doing door knocks at random times and unannounced , and woe betide anyone who isn't home when they should be . Huge fine and prison time if they breach their home iso health order . [color=#FF0000]<<< This is getting much to close to home for our comfort >>>[/color] Found out about their situation today when one of their daughters dropped off their weekly shop at their front door and came down knocked on our front door and let us know , and wanted to know if we were OK. Long phone chat after she left filled in the gaps. Positivity in HNE region is 0.0146% , so risk of our catching Delta is still too small to us to risk AZ vax. We're holding off for Pfizer or Moderna Vaxxes to become an option for Gp2a ( us ). Crazy next-door neighbour from hell is on formal notice , if he EVER relapses he'll being sent to the loony bin for the rest of his life , so he's living on thin ice . Handy to know. Delta Outbreaks in Regional NSW > Hunter New England outbreak grew by 13 new local Delta cases [ post CCTBKR LD curve slope = 1.34 , doubling time = 2.4 days :shock: ] > Western Region outbreak grew alarmingly fast by 17 new local Delta cases [ post CCTBKR LD curve slope = 2.02 , doubling time = 1 day !!! :shock: :shock: :shock: , we have relatives in the region who we really fear for and hope are wise enough to keep safe ] > Northern Rivers - Tweed Region Outbreak haven't recorded any new cases for a few days > Myall Mid North Coast Region recorded 1 local case and is under RED ALERT and they are doing a > Far West Region are under RED ALERT , Delta has been detected in sewage in Broken Hill. testing and vaxxing blitzes (in the Myall & Far West regions to try to head off any outbreak ( large number of aboriginal people in underprivileged communities in these areas ). All Regionally NSW is now in Circuitbreaker Hard Lockdown with star@home orders in place for everyone in NSW including remaining LGAs in Greater Sydney + Central Coast + Blue Mountains + Illawarra, Newcastle & Lake Macquarie. A 5 km bubble applies throughout the state + enforced mask mandates + stay@home orders + and social distancing / visitor restrictions as well. [url=https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/sydney/nsw-covid-restrictions-what-are-the-rules-across-the-state/ar-AANj4Xq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531]https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/sydney/nsw-covid-restrictions-what-are-the-rules-across-the-state/ar-AANj4Xq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531[/url] [url=https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/explained-what-you-need-to-know-about-nsw-s-new-restrictions/ar-AANiTRH?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531]https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/explained-what-you-need-to-know-about-nsw-s-new-restrictions/ar-AANiTRH?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531[/url] [url=https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/epic-5-000-fine-for-breaking-sydney-s-covid-health-orders/ar-AANiCEW?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531]https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/epic-5-000-fine-for-breaking-sydney-s-covid-health-orders/ar-AANiCEW?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531[/url] FINALLY the Premier has gotten serious !! This is nominally for ONE WEEK but no one has any delusions that the new Hard lock Down will be lifted any time in the next few months , despite statements by the Premier that when vaxx rate reaches a target if 70% of all eligible adults and teens the restrictions might be relaxed. Health experts are voicing great reservations about this and believe this is too low a % vaxed and needs to be over 80% of the whole population to benefit from herd immunity via vaxed people. This is because we have been so success in AU in keeping out rate of covid infection way way lower than most anywhere else on the planet ( except NZ ), so we do not have a huge portion of the AU population who have natural covid immunity like in USA, UK, Germany, France, etc. The NSW Police have put the entire NSW population on notice, no more education , no more cops negotiating with stupid people who are ignoring the health orders and mask and social distancing mandates , or are not isolating when required to when waiting for results of their covid tests. Also gazetted new much heavier on the spot fines starting at $1000. NSW police announced there will be police blitz on non-compliance while the state wide hard lockdown in force and all police leave has been cancelled so there will many more cops on pushbikes, motor bikes, on the beat, in patrol cars, on horses, on the water, and in the air enforcing the health orders as well as 1000 unarmed ADF in support ( as muscle if needed ). No curfews yet , but IMO these will not be far off , like in the 1st Nation Wide Wave, and the 2nd Wave In Victoria. The NSW Govt has admitted this outbreak is extremely dangerous is now Australia's 3rd Wave , NSW is NOW on a war footing. Very concerning outbreak in the Outback Western Health District of NSW , even more dangerous because of the lack of hospital facilities and distances involved getting critically ill people from very remote settlements and towns to ICUs and very few ventilators are available in remote areas , and because aboriginal settlements and communities are much more vulnerable than the most others and less likely to come forward for testing or vaxxing or treatment. [img]https://i.postimg.cc/PxH3FnDB/14august2021-epidemiological-curves-for-NSW-regional.png[/img] The Delta outbreak in my area ( HUNTER NEW ENGLAND ) is also very scary and the curve is very steap , we've been in circuitbreaker lockdown for nearly 2 weeks here and the curve is not responding as it should ==> too many locals are disobeying mask mandates, social distancing orders, and too many infected "essential workers" and rogue visitors are leaking out of the hotspot areas in GSydney and coming here. Big Delta outbreak in a Masonic Lodge Nursing home in Newcastle ( very few workers are vaxed , and not all of the residents ). Data [img]https://i.postimg.cc/BZKcknsk/14-AUGUST2021-CLUSTERS.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/905TCyVS/14-AUGUST2021-BREAKDOWN-OF-DELTA-3-RD-WAVE-LOCALLY-ACQD-CASES-TIME-IN-COMMUNITY.png.[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/dtn7Sb7g/14-AUGUST2021-INFECTIOUS-IN-COMMUNITY-SOME-OF-TIME.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/0jnpnbRB/screenshot-366.png[/img] Modelling [img]https://i.postimg.cc/9FfXzrMN/144-AUGUST2021-MODELLING.png[/img] From 5pm TODAY No resident in Greater Sydney + Central Coast + Blue Mountains + Illawarra can leave their LGA without a NSW Hearth Issued travel permit and all essential workers will be required to produce their permit on demand when stopped by the NSW Police at checkpoints or in random check outside these HOTSPOT LGAs. There were also more 21 local Delta cases in Melbourne (restricted to only Greater Melb) and 6 more local Delta cases in SE QLD , 2 more local Delta Cases in Canberra , ACT went into a 1 week hard circuit breaker lockdown on 11 Aug.. [/QUOTE]
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Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".
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