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Break Room (formerly Off Topic)
Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".
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[QUOTE="kingofnobbys, post: 1970685, member: 81934"] 17 July UPDATE. NSW New hardened restrictions have been imposed by NSW Govt today that aim to completely shut down the southwest Sydney epicenter of the outbreak. ( About 1 million SW Sydney residents are now under mandatory STAY @ HOME orders and restricted to their LGAs , they are also required to maskup when ever outside their home , even when exercising , and throught Greater Sydney all no essential shops and businesses are ordered closed ). She's not been listening as there have been constant calls by experts in infectious decease control to tighten up the restrictions in Sydney for over 3 weeks ( daily !! ). [url=https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/sydney/sydney-lockdown-shock-as-gladys-berejiklian-admits-nsw-has-failed-to-quash-covid-outbreak/ar-AAMfFmC?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531]https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/sydney/sydney-lockdown-shock-as-gladys-berejiklian-admits-nsw-has-failed-to-quash-covid-outbreak/ar-AAMfFmC?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531[/url] [url=https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/everything-you-need-to-know-about-sydney-s-total-shut-down/ar-AAMfmQ4?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531]https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/everything-you-need-to-know-about-sydney-s-total-shut-down/ar-AAMfmQ4?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531[/url] Back over 100 new local cases today and another covid death ( 3 deaths this week in NSW ). Two of Sydney's biggest hospitals are now in lockdown as there are hundreds of clinicians and nurses and supp staff in isolation and a number home quarantining after testing positive for Delta. SA [url=https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/sa-bans-travel-from-most-of-victoria-and-imposes-14-day-quarantine-on-returning-residents-as-covid-concerns-grow/ar-AAMfoQO?ocid=msedgntp]https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/sa-bans-travel-from-most-of-victoria-and-imposes-14-day-quarantine-on-returning-residents-as-covid-concerns-grow/ar-AAMfoQO?ocid=msedgntp[/url] QLD & WA have closed their borders to Victorian residents. Data [img]https://i.postimg.cc/8P9VNq75/17july2021-data.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/y8c2BWqQ/17july2021-clusters-and-outbreaks.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/fRR5qLzS/17july2021-delta-cases-nsw-by-exposure.png[/img] The number of infected people who are in the community or in the community for part of their infectious periods is very dangerous and indicates 1) lots of people are ignoring the health orders and social distancing and mask mandates 2) Delta is very widely spread now in Greater Syd and surrounds 3) this wave is going to get a lot bigger before the numbers start heading in the right direction ( as confirmed by the steep semilog curve slope ~ 1.16 ). [img]https://i.postimg.cc/wMkc0Knk/17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-AU.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/8zcBB04h/17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-nsw.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/fWvc4Ngc/17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-vic.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/d0dC5PyT/17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-qld.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/v8XVqvcX/17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-wa.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/DZ68N2ym/17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-sa.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/SRtjyD9h/17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-nt.png[/img] I know about 20% of those in ICU are ventilated ( news sources ABC & SBS ) but this is not being reported in the public data. [img]https://i.postimg.cc/N07MygXb/17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-AU.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/43JGSpKb/17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-nsw.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/Tw16RGJK/17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-vic.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/287rFHy8/17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-qld.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/9XxBR2tW/17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-wa.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/6qSRH9Yn/17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-sa.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/cCVgRFLc/17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-nt.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/50r6JsLM/17july2021-daily-covid-deaths.png[/img] Modelling [img]https://i.postimg.cc/wvnL2qWJ/17july2021-nsw-delta-wave-vs-melb-2nd-wave-and-other-delta-outbreaks-in-qld-and-vic.png[/img] [img]https://i.postimg.cc/pTBYWbkn/17july2021-nsw-delta-wave-vs-melb-2nd-wave-and-other-delta-outbreaks-in-qld-and-vic-prediction.png[/img] What does my modelling tell us ? Unrestrained spread of Delta will see case numbers grow 10 fold in 4.5days, 100 fold in 9 days and 1000 fold in 2 weeks …. not hard to see why so many countries are seeing huge new waves of covid now Delta is the dominant strain globally. Seems my model is leading actual case numbers by 1 day with an uncertainty of 4%. [/QUOTE]
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Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".
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