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Break Room (formerly Off Topic)
Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".
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[QUOTE="kingofnobbys, post: 1940626, member: 81934"] [b]Summary of MY analysis ( a large part ) of the cause of the 2nd wave of Covid19 in Victoria and NSW .[/b] I am not privy to the detailed case data so I can not do the level of detailed analysis that contact tracers can do if they are instructed to do so using mobile metadata ( CovidSafe App ) and cluster trees. Tying COVIDIOT rallies ( 30th and 31st May in Sydney and Melbourne ( biggest ! ) ) and 1st and 2nd rounds of BLM and Anti-Immigration Detention Rallies the 2 weekends following ( 7 June and 14 June ) to 2nd WAVE in Victoria and NSW [img]https://i.postimg.cc/nhpkZDH0/Time-lines-for-rallys-tied-to-2nd-wave.png[/img] Notes COVIDIOTS RALLIES Covidiots [color=#FF0000]didn't bother social distancing or wearing any face masks [/color]and they had large social gatherings and travelled by car share and hired minibuses to their muster points. [color=#FF0000]RISK of spreading Covid19 is VERY HIGH ( higher than 90% applied risk engg methods) RISK of them not getting tested is VERY HIGH. RISK of them voluntarily quarantining if sick IS NONE EXISTANT RISK of them hiding the fact they are sick is HIGH unless critically ill. [/color] BLM and Anti-Immigration Detention RALLIES [color=#FF0000]Very large scale BLM in many large and small towns BUT they did try to social distance and most wore face masks ==> [/color]RISK of spreading Covid19 is low (something between 30% and 40% applied risk engg methods). [color=#FF0000]RISK of them getting tested is good to high[/color] ( aboriginal groups come from underprivileged areas and they have higher levels of comorbidities than non-indigenous people. [color=#FF0000]RISK of them failing to voluntarily quarantine is low. RISK of them hiding the fact they are sick is LOW.[/color] Test positivity rate in Melbourne is now about 5% which is VERY BAD. ( ref ABC The Drum 9jul2020 Prof Collignon [url=https://iview.abc.net.au/show/drum]https://iview.abc.net.au/show/drum[/url] ) [/QUOTE]
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Break Room (formerly Off Topic)
Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".
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