Life under social isolation or mandatory "stay home orders".

kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
31 May

Situation in Victoria is getting worse . Now have B1617 in 3 private residential nursing homes in Melbourne ( hells bells , workers are still allowed to work in more than one place , not compulsory to be vaxxed to work in these places , only about 1/2 the residents are vaxxed ( they are Grp 1A and should have been vaxxed months ago ), and people responsible for managing and setting standards in these private residential nursing homes & the vax rollout the Federal govt are incompetent . Vaxxing has been privatised , NOT being run by federal or vic state health depts, or GPs , they are private contractors !! (always a failure) - unbelieveable ….
Criminal incompetence by Federal Aged Care & Federal Health Ministers and the PM , they are responsible and have done nothing to avoid this despite a huge and expensive and expansive judicial inquiry which spelt out what had happen over 6 months ago.

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kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
5 Jun update

Summary --
Greater Melbourne's lockdown extended by another week ( minimum , B1617 = Kappa & and now Delta strain still spreading , there are still breaks in the known infection chains , more disturbingly the (indian) Delta strain has been found circulating and SE NSW is now on high alert because a few Melbourne families holidayed in SE NSW while infectious & sick with Delta).
Restictions in REGIONAL Victoria have not been extended in the same way as in Greater Melbourne , some regional Victoria restrictions have be relaxed.
B1617 is now in several residential care nursing homes in Melbourne , staff contracted and spread to several residents. Community is VERY ANGRY this has happened AGAIN despite all the promises by ScoMo , Hunt and Colbert that they would fix this and stop it happening again - clear nothing has been learnt , and the federal ministers responsible have chosen to do as little as possible ( nothing ).

People stood down in Victoria are getting big road blocks to getting Centrelink Emergency payments , and this time there is no JOBKEEPER to help their bossed keep them on. UNACCEPTABLE ScoMo.

Vic police are stopping fleeing Victorians from entering NSW & SA.

Vax blitz underway in Victoria ( all too late IMO as it takes weeks for 1st jab to give any protection , and people need 2 jabs to get "full" protection ).

Queensland and Victoria are moving ahead with building purpose quarantine facilities that will be Howard Springs clones.

There has been an outbreak of B1617 in a WA quarantine hotel in Perth , resulting in an entire floor being evacuated .
There is another covid ship in Kwinana Port , some crew evacuated to hospital in a bad way.

Federal vax rollout has been a shambles so far.
Turns out in aged and disability care ( Grp1a !!! which should have been completed using Pfizer vax ) nearly half residents remain unvaxxed and even less workers )
Add insult to injury - workers are still allowed to work across multiple facilities and outside the sector despite the huge judicial enquiry telling federal govt ( Mins Hunt ( health ) , Colbert ( Aged and Seniors ) , and PM , this needs to be outlawed .
Plus workers in these are still not being ordered to be vaxxed , IMO it needs to be made a non-negotiable CONDITION OF EMPLOYMENT - no vax = no job / no access to facility.

5 million have had one AZ or Pfizer jab.
QLD , NSW , Victoria are all establish mass vax centres in hope of getting more people vaxxed , however lots of people over 50 who are not currently offered Pfizer and only have AZ offered to them are cancelling appointments and not showing up for their jabs , this is because in all states except Victoria , Australians have looked at the risk of catching covid and suffering hospitalisation due to blood clots and decided AZ is not worth the risk - my wife and I are in this camp.
Offer us Pfizer and we'll be keen to be vaxxed , NOT so for AZ. So like millions of others in Gp2a and Gp2b we are holding off on being vaxxed and demanding access to Pfizer , preferably as vax at home if we can get it.

That's 5 million have had only one jab, very few have been FULLY vaxxed . So under 10% are fully vaxxed , and most these are with the 2nd rate AZ vax.

Data
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kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
16 June Update

AMA reports that there has been so little flu in Australia since May 2020 that they think the Flu is extinct in Australia now, they put this down to lockdowns , compliance with social distancing , mask wearing and people self quarantining when they felt flu symptoms .

Greater Melbourne lockdown relaxed , all Victoria except the snowfields are now on similar restrictions.
The 25km travel limit has been lifted for Melbournians - this has pleased businesses and holiday venues in Regional Victoria greatly.
However it has been mandated by Vic Health that Victorian wishing to go to and stay at the snowfields must return a negative test before going there ( this is because o/seas similar areas and venues have resulted in superspreader events and catalysed national and internation waves and huge outbreaks).
Victoria has run out of Pfizer vaccine and is now rationing this vaccine to only people who have health issues .

Wild weather & flooding continues in Victoria , 10s of 1000s of homes remain w/out mains electricity and are likely to remain "in the dark" for up to another 3 weeks while fallen trees and down powerpoles are removed , and the grid in these areas is rebuilt.
Much of flooded regional Victoria is now having it's own spectacular spider plague.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/worldnews/15279075/spider-apocalypse-australia-countryside-cobwebs-biblical-mouse-plague/

SA has reopened border with Victoria .

NSW's 6 week run of zero local covid transmission has been broken with a local mystery case in Bondi area of Eastern Sydney , consequently Greater Sydney is now on VERY HIGH ALERT and a testing blitz is underway while contact tracers try to determine how this gentleman was infected. It may be a consequence - he works for the airport as an intl aircrew transport driver . Worry is he has been in the community for 2 or 3 days while infectious and been to several very popular (crowded) venues.

Meanwhile the cold snap is slowing the spread of NSW's grain-belt mouse plague . Southern NSW and as far north as the Hunter was hit by wild gales and storms overnight ( very spectacular displays of chain lighting here overnight with gales and heavy rain. Bright and sun but VERY WINDY and CHILL this morning here ( 17 June ).

Federal Health has finally agreed to allow and bulkbill vaccinations in the home for those who are at risk if they have to go to public vax hubs, their local GP vax clinic, or a hospital , and for those Australian's who are home bound.

Data
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kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
18 June Update.

NSW
Another quarantine system leak in Sydney , this time a driver employed to transport intl aircrews to quarantine has been infected with the Delta variant and been actively socialising and moving about in eastern Sydney and in Wollongong for over a week while infectious.

There are now 4 cases of local covid transmission in Eastern Sydney and today NSW Health imposed restriction in Greater Sydney and masks are mandated again in Greater Sydney.

People have been infected by him indoors and outdoors with the most fleeting contacts.

FEDERAL
Yet another change to the vaccine rollout in Australia, it's now advised that no one under 60yo get the AZ vaccine , this means Gp1a , Gp1b , and people 50 to 60 yo , are being advised to get Pfizer jabs , unless they have already had their 1st jab of AZ with no severe reactions , so now my grp ( 60 to 70 yo ) are only ones still only offered AZ unless their doctor advises against it.

So my wife and I will hold off and continue voluntary self iso at home for a while yet , as we don't need the risk of blood clotting due to AZ and will holdout til more Pfizer is available ( in short supply in Australia ) and it's made available to all age groups. Not enough covid in the community here to warrant the risk IMO.
Also waiting for the Federal Health Dept to establish in-the-home vaccination on request as we consider it too risky to go the GP vax clinic , or a mass vax hub , or a hospital to get the jabs.

data
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kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
20 JUNE UPDATE.

NSW - BONDI DELTA QUARANTINE LEAK continues to spread in Sydney and in Wollongong ( now in a materity ward :( ).
Known cases are doubling every 2 days. ==> R = 2.54 at least.
Mask mandates extended to ALL INDOORS venues and all public transport in Sydney and Wollongong & Shellharbour.
(All SE Sydney).

QLD - another intl flight attendant has become sick with cov19 after serving 14 days in mandatory hotel quarantine ( not believed to be DELTA variant - small mercies ).
QLD has stiffened up checks on people from NSW and Victoria , and has turned around domestic airlines from Melbourne and Sydney airport.

SA has closed border to NSW.

Meanwhile WA has now moved to FULL COVID NORMAL with 7 weeks of zero local covid transmission , joining ACT, Tas, NT, SA at COVID NORMAL status ( life as it was before the pandemic for residents and interstate visitors = no social distancing restrictions on WA residents and their border remains closed to NSW & Victoria.
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kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
23Jun

All Australian states and territories have locked out to residents of Greater Sydney , Illawarra , Blue Mts and Central Coast ( Bondi DELTA strain outbreak still doubling every day ) and residents of Greater Sydney , Illawarra , Blue Mts and Central Coast have been ordered by NSW Health and NSW Premier and NSW Police NOT TO LEAVE THE area , back to 4sqm rule, restrictions on visitors and on commercial settings.
Just in time for the Winter School break.

The Bondi DELTA Outbreak has reached Wellington NZ.
TransTasman bubble with Greater Sydney has been suspended.

QLD recorded 1 new local case of DELTA overnight.

Victoria is relaxing restrictions in Greater Melbourne and Regional Victoria for Victorian @ midnight on Friday. No one from Greater Sydney is allowed to entire Victoria without a permit and going into mandatory Hotel Q/tine at their own expense ( vaccinated or not ).
Data
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kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
27 June

And here we go again - the start of Australia's 3rd Covid Wave.

Because NSW's Premier and Health Minister were too reluctant to impose a HARD LOCKDOWN on a few LGAs in Eastern Sydney on 19 June or 20 June when there was only a small DELTA outbreak in a small area of Sydney .

Now DELTA is all over Greater Sydney and Illawarra forcing GREATER SYDNEY including Illawarra , Blue Mts , Central Coast into a STAGE 3 HARD LOCKDOWN from 26 June and the rest of NSW into STAGE 2 restrictions. NSW Premier ignored health expert advise now all of NSW and AU will pay for it.


All due to the shear incompetence of the NSW Health Minister and Federal Health Minister and Federal Minister for Border Control who allowed international aircrews to be transported by unvaccinated drivers who were not compelled to mask up while exposed to intl flight crews and transporting them to hotel quarantine. UNBELIEVEABLY STUPID & INCOMPETENT - I'd call it criminal negligence.

Start of NSW's 3rd Wave
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And inside a little under 2 weeks it's spread from Sydney to Cooper Pedi, Perth, SE QLD , Outback NSW , Canberra, Wellington NZ, Darwin , a gold mine in a remote area in NW NT ( Newmont Corporation’s Granites FIFO operated gold mine, 550 km NW of Alice Springs ), and today my neck of the woods ( the Hunter Valley ) because of quarantine leaks , NSW Premier choosing to delay imposing a hard lockdown for political reasons and because she has made it her brand to criticise other states who actually followed expert health advise by locking down hard and fast and closing their borders to protect their state's economies and residents , and a swag full of covidiots from Sydney ( and Melbourne ) who decided to ignore the health orders.

So as it stands
Regional NSW under Stage 2 restrictions w/ a mask mandate in force.
Greater Sydney + Illawarra + Blue Mountains + Central Coast under HARD LOCK DOWN , not allowed to leave the lockdown area ,Stay @ Home order in place , back to 4 sqm rule for venues and 5 visitors max per home , no curfews yet , no 5 km movement restriction yet.
NSW Parliament is in covid LOCKDOWN - because ministers and state members of parliament didn't mask up and even threw a party on the premises which has become a superspreader event after the initial SOFT "lockdown" /restrictions were announce mid last week . Ministers and party officials have been exposed and some tested +ve for DELTA …. unbelieveable stupidity.
TransTasman travel bubble between NZ & AU suspended.
Darwin in Hard Lockdown as off today ( travellers from Sydney have spread Delta )
Perth in Hard Lockdown as off today. ( travellers from Sydney have spread Delta )
NSW residents locked out from all other states and territories.
 

kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
29 June

Half Australia's population is now subject to STAY @ HOME and mask mandate orders with lockdowns in :

QLD = ALL GREATER BRISBANE , GOLD COAST (unvaxxed health worker & FIFO DELTA superspreader event) , and SE QLD and Townsville Regions (FIFO DELTA spreader event) are in a CCT BREAKER HARD LOCKDOWN.
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NT = ALL of DARWIN ( due FIFO mine DELTA superspreader event) in a CCT BREAKER HARD LOCKDOWN.

WA = GREATER PERTH & Peel regions (due to FIFO mine DELTA superspread event) in a CCT BREAKER LOCKDOWN.

NSW = GREATER SYDNEY & Central Coast & Illawarra & Blue Mts regions (Q/tine breech and several superspreader events & now FIFO mine superspreader event is compounding this).
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slope = 10^0.1719 = 1.48
doubling period = 0.55 days
trebling period = 1.57 days
10 fold increase period = 4.6 days.
or …. a 10 fold increase can be seen in under 5 days.

In his panic at an emergency National Covid Cabinet Meeting , ScoMo has made AZ available to EVERYONE who wants it. This is against expert medical advise .

data
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kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
30 June

Alice Springs NT now in a 3 day CCT breaker HARD LOCKDOWN after on FIFO gold miner passed through Alice Springs Airport to connect to a flight .

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A Delta infected Gold Mine worker believed to be infectious sparked lockdown after visiting Alice Springs airport on June 25
Granites Gold Mine ( located in the remote Tanami Desert ) Cluster has spread DELTA to all eastern states as over 900 FIFO miners returned home at the end of their 20 day onsite rosters.

Granites Gold Mine Ops are in STILL in Covid LOCKDOWN.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-26/nt-covid-19-case/100246406

Local current affairs programs have been comparing the BONDI DELTA OUTBREAK with recent clusters in NSW , I've gone one better , comparing it with AU's worst Covid outbreak , the 2nd Melbourne Wave , and this DELTA outbreak makes Melbourne's 2nd Wave look not so bad .
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chart only
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Read equations as Y = ax + b
where
Y = log10(cumulated local DELTA cases) <==> log10(y) = Y
a = slope in semilog transformation
b = intercept in semilog transformation

Process models the following physical system
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The power of contact tracing : extracted from elsewhere , this is only possible if small numbers of new local transmissions are occurring and is part of AU's and NZ's success at eliminating Covid up to now.

NSW BONDI DELTA OUTBREAK contact tracing chart
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NT DELTA OUTBREAK < linked to BONDI DELTA OUTBREAK > & QLD ALPHA OUTBREAK contact tracing charts
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kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
2 JULY update'.

National Covid Cabinet ( Federal and State leaders and ministers and CHOs ) decided to cut repatriation flight numbers by 50% for the forseeable future due to high rates of DELTA in all countries outside AU where "stranded" Australians are.
PM re-announced a 4 stage National Opening Up strategy that was long words and lacking in substance and measureable setpoints that must be met. More of the same.

QLD has restriction in all by Greater Brisbane.

WA is coming out lockdown.

Tasmania is making interstate check ins MORE rigorous.

Meanwhile in Greater Sydney the DELTA outbreak continues to spread and daily new cases continue to accelerate with a large proportion having no known links already known clusters .

Data
2july2021-CLUSTERS.png


My latest analysis and a comparison of the Bondi DELTA outbreak , with the delayed yet less than adequate lockdown in Greater Sydney, Illawarra , Blue Mountains and Central Coast with the start of Melbourne's 2nd Covid Wave ( exactly 1 year ago ) is , in a word , ALARMING .
2jul2021-nsw.png


NSW is in for a lot a covid pain before the curve flattens & this is not going to happen inside July.

I've written to NSW Health Minister Hazzard and STRONGLY ADVISED that
1) NSW can not wait another week to decide to extend the lockdown
2) NSW Health must act now to impose nightly curfews in the RED ZONE / HOTSPOT LGAs to restrict local transmission of DELTA
3) NSW Health must act now to impose a 5km travel restriction throughout the RED and ORANGE ZONES to break interLGA DELTA infection chains and to restrict DELTA to smaller areas.
 

kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
Update 7 July

NSW GREATER SYDNEY "SOFT LOCKDOWN" extended for another week because Delta is still spreading ( surprise surprise , because no curfews, no 5km movement restrictions , pubs, clubs and shops all still open , poor soc distancing and mask mandate compliance ) , there are consistently 50% of new local cases found each day that are no in isolation .

Exponent remains stubbornly a ~ 0.06 and Rn ~ 1.14 .( shadowing the Melbourne 2nd WAVE's first 31days ).

Man in his early 30s in ICU and fighting for life on a ventilator in a Sydney hospital.
 

kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
12 July UPDATE.

Greater Sydney Delta Wave is spiraling out of control.
Crashed through 100 cases overnight, 112 local cases of Delta , first death from Covid this year in NSW, and ICU's are filling up , even pple in their teens on ventilation !!

Data speaks for itself.
Clusters in AU
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The NSW Govt's SOFT LOCKDOWN has failed , now been strengthened as off Saturday 10July , we in NSW refer it to the NSW Claytons' Lockdown ( the lockdown you have without having a real lockdown ).
Key feature is lockdown has been extended , and now includes a 10km home range bubble - largely considered totally inadequate , should be 3km home range bubbles , and many NSW residents and most experts want Auckland / Melbourne style HARD LOCKDOWN including 3km bubble, Stay @ Home orders for ALL , and curfews.

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Scary !

NSW Delta Wave compared with Melb Wild Type 2nd Wave in July2020.
12july2021-NSW-semilog-graph-cumulated-local-delta-cases.png

It's very clear that NSW ( Greater Syd ) will be seeing > 1000 active total local DELTA cases in a few days.
Very likely contact tracing will be overwhelmed this week , about half the cases have consistently been people at large in the community while infectious and about 1/3 to 1/2 new daily cases each day are not traceable back to know clusters.

Exponent slope has increased to 1.155 as a consequence of last weekends masses of people crowding Sydney beaches, parks and malls despite "requests" by the Premier & CHO to stay at home and many antimaskers disobeying the mask mandate and people having "illegal" parties.

And it seems my modeling is on the money , this is what the experts say is likely happen
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Need STAGE 4 HARD ( DRACONIAN ) Melbourne / Auckland lockdown to have a chance to flatten the curve before Xmas.

Elsewhere in Australia.

Victorians have been told to return home from NSW === NOW on Saturday and were given 2 days === and they must self quarantine at home for 14 days ,and be tested if they have been in Greater Sydney since the start of this wave.
Victoria has closed it's border to all residents of NSW.
2 local cases ( returnees from Sydney to Victoria ) have been found ( who were already in voluntary quarantine ).
This leaves only the QLD border open to regional NSW residents , Greater Syd, Blue Mts, Illawarra and Central Coast residents are banned from crossing QLD/NSW border.

Meanwhile in QLD, restrictions have been relaxed , mask mandate has been lifted in all QLD except Townsville and Greater Brisbane + GoldCoast + SunshineCoast.
Today Qld Premier has ordered all Qlders still in NSW to return home NOW.

Meanwhile in WA, all restrictions have been lifted ==> WA in COVIDNORMAL as covid is considered to have been eliminated in WA ( espec Greater Perth & Peel regions -- lucky buggers ).
 

kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
15July Update.

From bad to worst.
Too many pple are not coming forward for testing and are remaining in the community while infectious
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And c/- the WEAK Lockdown in Greater Sydney and a group of Sydney based removalists who failed to follow basic covidSAFE protocols ( never even bothered masking up ) while travelling from Sydney to Melbourne and from Melbourne to Adelaide and back to Sydney ( involving pitstops & visits to roadhouses and service stations (gas stations), there are now Delta outbreaks in Adelaide and Melbourne and several regional towns in SA, NSW and Victoria are on Covid red alert and nearly 2000 people in Victoria and SA and NSW (regional) are now ordered into home quarantine.

Delta has reached Gundagai in regional NSW .

Greater Melbourne has been forced back into a HARD CCT BREAKER lockdown as of today for at least a week and the Vic-NSW border is now closed to everyone resident in NSW.
There are over 6000 Melbournians in mandatory home quarantine as a result of removalists who worked unmasked in Melbourne & 3 schools already forced to close.

So now Australia's two largest cities are in Hard or Hardish ( Sydney is really a soft lockdown ) and literally half Australia's population ( 11.8million or 47%) are living under covid restrictions ( either Stage 4 (Melbourne) or Stage 3 ( Greater Sydney + Illawarra + Central Coast + blue Mountains ) and more than 2/3 the Australian economy is locked down.

Plus Greater Brisbane and QLD SE Coast are remaining in Level 2 restrictions because of leakage of Delta infected covrefugees and border runners ( who chose to ignore the restrictions for selfish social reasons ie to attend the footy ).

SA has reimposed Level 3 restrictions statewide on the strength of the Delta outbreaks in Brisbane, and Delta clusters caused by the removalists in Melbourne, Gundagai and Adelaide .

And an entire apartment building in Adelaide has had all residents and visitors since the day the removalists were in the building placed in mandatory home quarantine for at least 2 weeks.

Data
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Two deaths in NSW from Delta.


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htt
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A dozen people on ventilation including 1 child and 1 teenager.

Comparing Melbourne Wild Covid 2nd Wave with Greater Sydney Delta Wave for first month.
13july2021-NSW-semilog-graph-cumulated-local-delta-cases.png

Predicted numbers for short period into future
13july2021-NSW-semilog-graph-cumulated-local-delta-cases-predictions.png
 

kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
17 July UPDATE.

NSW
New hardened restrictions have been imposed by NSW Govt today that aim to completely shut down the southwest Sydney epicenter of the outbreak. ( About 1 million SW Sydney residents are now under mandatory STAY @ HOME orders and restricted to their LGAs , they are also required to maskup when ever outside their home , even when exercising , and throught Greater Sydney all no essential shops and businesses are ordered closed ).


Lockdown restrictions in Greater Sydney will be drastically tightened after the New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, conceded measures introduced three weeks ago were failing to stop an outbreak of more than 1,000 cases.

erejiklian made the changes after repeatedly denying in the past week that there was any need to harden restrictions, saying people could use their “common sense” to decide whether they were an essential workplace that had to stay open.

But as the state recorded 111 Covid-19 cases – including 29 who had been in the community while infectious – Berejiklian said there was no choice but to pull the trigger on the toughest restrictions implemented in NSW during the pandemic.
She insisted the government had not received health advice at any other time during the outbreak that had justified the measures announced on Saturday.

She's not been listening as there have been constant calls by experts in infectious decease control to tighten up the restrictions in Sydney for over 3 weeks ( daily !! ).

The decision to prevent residents from Fairfield, Liverpool and Canterbury Bankstown local government areas leaving for work, unless they are health or emergency services workers, was taken after a significant proportion of the state’s positive cases were recorded there (80 of 111 on Saturday, 60 of which were in Fairfield).
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/sydney/sydney-lockdown-shock-as-gladys-berejiklian-admits-nsw-has-failed-to-quash-covid-outbreak/ar-AAMfFmC?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/everything-you-need-to-know-about-sydney-s-total-shut-down/ar-AAMfmQ4?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Back over 100 new local cases today and another covid death ( 3 deaths this week in NSW ).
Two of Sydney's biggest hospitals are now in lockdown as there are hundreds of clinicians and nurses and supp staff in isolation and a number home quarantining after testing positive for Delta.

SA
South Australia has barred almost all Victorian residents from entering the state – and plans to prevent South Australians from returning without specific exemptions from next week — as a coronavirus outbreak grows across the border.

Effective immediately, only SA residents, people genuinely relocating or those fleeing domestic violence can enter from Victoria.

There is still a 70-kilometre cross-border bubble zone but Victorians cannot go any further into South Australia.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/sa-bans-travel-from-most-of-victoria-and-imposes-14-day-quarantine-on-returning-residents-as-covid-concerns-grow/ar-AAMfoQO?ocid=msedgntp

QLD & WA have closed their borders to Victorian residents.

Data
17july2021-data.png

17july2021-clusters-and-outbreaks.png

17july2021-delta-cases-nsw-by-exposure.png


The number of infected people who are in the community or in the community for part of their infectious periods is very dangerous and indicates
1) lots of people are ignoring the health orders and social distancing and mask mandates
2) Delta is very widely spread now in Greater Syd and surrounds
3) this wave is going to get a lot bigger before the numbers start heading in the right direction ( as confirmed by the steep semilog curve slope ~ 1.16 ).

17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-AU.png

17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-nsw.png

17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-vic.png

17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-qld.png

17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-wa.png

17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-sa.png

17-JUly2021-DAILY-KNOWN-SOURCE-OF-INFECTION-4-PM-14-DAYS-nt.png


I know about 20% of those in ICU are ventilated ( news sources ABC & SBS ) but this is not being reported in the public data.
17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-AU.png

17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-nsw.png

17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-vic.png

17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-qld.png

17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-wa.png

17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-sa.png

17july2021-DAILY-HOSPITALISATION-2-WKS-nt.png


17july2021-daily-covid-deaths.png


Modelling
17july2021-nsw-delta-wave-vs-melb-2nd-wave-and-other-delta-outbreaks-in-qld-and-vic.png

17july2021-nsw-delta-wave-vs-melb-2nd-wave-and-other-delta-outbreaks-in-qld-and-vic-prediction.png


What does my modelling tell us ?
Unrestrained spread of Delta will see case numbers grow 10 fold in 4.5days, 100 fold in 9 days and 1000 fold in 2 weeks …. not hard to see why so many countries are seeing huge new waves of covid now Delta is the dominant strain globally.

Seems my model is leading actual case numbers by 1 day with an uncertainty of 4%.
 

kingofnobbys

BD.org Sicko
Original Poster
20 July

Situation in Greater Sydney continues to worsen despite the LITE LOCKDOWN V2 , Delta cases are now being found in Illawarra and on the Central Coast, the South Western of regional NSW , and Southern Highlands of regional NSW which have now ordered into lockdown.
Coffs Harbour and Newcastle (Wallsend) are now on red alert after an "traveller who was infectious with Delta visited some eating venues and service stations.
There are way too many people from Sydney trying to take refuge outside the RED ZONE who are taking Delta with them and the lockdown is way too leaky and not near hard enough to contain Delta and retrain it's spread.
Orange is now in Lockdown /
The regional town of Orange will go into lockdown for seven days after an infected pet food driver spread Covid-19 to local shops - as the state's list of exposure sites grows by 19.
About 50,000 people in Orange, Blayney, and the Cabonne Shire Council in the New South Wales Central West will be plunged into lockdown from midnight on Tuesday.
Health authorities also issued an alert for a Coles Express in Goulburn, southwest New South Wales, after someone with the virus went shopping on Friday morning between 11.50 and midday.

Riverina region on high alert.
The rural town of Cootamundra in the NSW Riverina is on high alert after a person with COVID-19 visited the area.

Illawarra cases
Authorities working to determine the source of three COVID-19 cases confirmed in the Illawarra this week suspect they may be linked to cases in Sydney.
Two of the cases from the Wollongong area were revealed on Monday, with the Illawarra-Shoalhaven Local Health District (ISLHD) confirming the third case this afternoon.
"This case is from the Wollongong local government area and is linked to the two cases announced yesterday," the spokesperson said.

There have been 5 deaths now ( this week ).

20july2021-nsw-1.png


20july2021-hospitalisation-NSW.png


Victoria's Hard Lockdown has been extended and the NSW - Victoria is now closed ( not even Victorian can cross the border to return home unless they have a border pass , this is to stop further leakage if Delta from Sydney to Victoria ).
Cases of Delta detected in Mildura.

South Australia has gone into a Hard Lockdown after some rogue removalists from Sydney brought Delta to the state, South Australians are now in LEVEL 5 Restrictions (HARD LOCKDOWN)
19jul2021-SA-into-Lev4.png


"We have no alternative but to impose some fairly heavy and immediate restrictions to come in — at 6:00pm tonight South Australia moves into lockdown," the Premier said.

From 6:00pm, the only reasons to leave home will be to care for someone, for essential work, to purchase essential goods such as food, exercise with people from the same household and healthcare — including COVID testing and vaccination.

Exercise must be within 2.5 kilometres of home and only for up to 90 minutes per day.

Support for businesses is expected to be announced tomorrow.

Schools will be closed from tomorrow with a 24-hour transition period in place for teachers to arrange at-home learning.

Elective surgery is on hold and construction will not be allowed to go ahead.

People will need to stay in the house they have chosen to go to by 6:00pm.

Data

20july2021-clusters.png


20july2021-DELTA-Wave-NSW-cf-Melb-W2.png
 

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